French Open 2016 men's draw analysis
The draws are out for the year’s claycourt Grand Slam, and the biggest question – how far away World No. 1 and top seed Novak Djokovic would be from nine-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal – has been answered. The Serb has never won the title at Roland Garros, although he has enjoyed a stellar, nearly unbeatable run of form over the past year. He has reached the final in Paris in three of the last four years, and he has publicly stated that winning the French Open and completing the Career Grand Slam is his biggest goal for the year.
Djokovic may not have had the ideal clay court season – winning only a single title, in Madrid – but still remains the firm favourite to win given his fitness. The Serb has the fifth most successful claycourt win record of all time, but has infamously faltered at the French Open with regularity. He made the finals at the event in 2015, but lost out to Swiss Stan Wawrinka, who took his own second career Grand Slam title.
First quarter
Novak Djokovic will face Lu Yen-hsun of Taiwan in his first round match, and is in the same half as Nadal. The Spaniard is, famously, the most successful claycourt player in the history of the game, and barring any major upsets, the two are likely to face each other in the semifinal of the tournament.
That said, the prospect of a Djokovic-Nadal quarterfinal was avoided by the withdrawal of World No. 3 Roger Federer, who announced yesterday that he would not be playing the tournament as his back injury had not yet healed completely. Federer's departure moved Nadal up to the 4th seed at the tournament, meaning he would get his own quarter.
Although Djokovic leads the pair’s head-to-head tally with 26 wins of the pair’s 49 matches, Nadal holds the significant upper hand at Grand Slams and on clay courts; the Spaniard leads his Serbian rival 9-4 in Grand Slam matches and a whopping 14-7 on claycourts. Given Nadal’s ease on the surface, it may not be an easy ride for Djokovic to the finals.
That will be compounded by the fact that Nadal took two claycourt titles this year – at the Monte Carlo Masters and the Barcelona Open, and has enjoyed somewhat of an upswing in what appeared to be an otherwise flagging season.
The two most recently met at the quarterfinals of the Italian Open this month, with eventual finalist Djokovic only narrowly edging out his Spanish rival.
Djokovic has a seemingly straightforward path to the semis, with Roberto Bautista Agut or Bernard Tomic being his likely fourth round opponent. In the quarters he could face either David Ferrer or Tomas Berdych, neither of whom will particularly worry the Serb.
If Djokovic pulls off the title win here, he will have completed a career Grand Slam – and taken four consecutive Slam titles.
Also in the first quarter:
Young talent Bernard Tomic, who is 20th seed at the tournament, will have a chance to ply his trade at the French Open. The young Australian has not had significant success at Roland Garros, with a highest Round of 64 finish. That came last year, with Tomic losing out to his lower-ranked compatriot Thanasi Kokkinakis.
Faces to look out for: Borna Coric. The 19-year-old is incredibly talented and his skill has impressed several to the point where has earned the nickname ‘Baby Djokovic’ for his similarity to the top-ranked Serb’s game. A talented baseliner, Coric is also proficient at shot placement, and both he and the World No. 1 have acknowledged and appreciated the nickname.
Coric has had a very strong 2016 season, particularly on clay. The Croat has taken sets off Andy Murray, Kei Nishikori and taken Nadal to a tie-break on the Spaniard’s pet surface – all at the Rome Masters; given those statistics, Coric and his fans will fancy his chances at the Open.
Second quarter
Nadal will face Australia’s Sam Groth in his first round match. The 28-year-old Groth, a regular fixture on Australia’s Davis Cup team, is ranked 95th and will not fancy his chances given Nadal’s return to top form.
Groth is known for his big serve, but will not be particularly favoured against Nadal, and especially not on clay. The biggest threat for Nadal will likely come in the form of Dominic Thiem in the fourth round.
Thiem has been making a name for himself lately and defeated Nadal earlier in the year; he also pushed Djokovic in Miami and defeated Federer in Rome last week. The Austrian could, however, face another upcoming star – Alexander Zverev in the third round – that will be a match everyone interested in the future of tennis will look forward to.
Nadal's likely quarterfinal opponent will be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but David Goffin could pose a problem or two for the Frenchman in the fourth round. That said, Nadal has no particular reason to worry against the French player; he has won 8 of the pair’s 12 matches, with Tsonga unable to even take a set off the Spaniard on clay.
Faces to look out for: One is Alexander ‘Sascha’ Zverev. The young German player has looked good this season, after being voted 2015’s ATP Next Generation star. He most recently lost to Roger Federer in Italy, but at the clay court BMW Open proved a worthy adversary for yet another powerful hitter, and another potential top 10 player – Austria’s Dominic Thiem, who is also in his quarter.
That brings us to Thiem. The 22-year-old has been impressive through the 2016 season, and is currently ranked 15th on the ATP tour. He has won titles this year – at the ATP500 Abierto Mexicano Telcel, on hard courts, and the ATP250 Argentina Open, which was on clay.
Most notable about the latter was that the Austrian defeated Rafael Nadal on clay – something Nadal will be concerned about.
Thiem has become somewhat of a giant slayer this year, beating Roger Federer in straight sets at the Italian Open on clay this year. Having also seriously troubled World No. 1 Novak Djokovic at the Miami Open this year, Thiem looked like he could have pulled off three for three in upsets; unfortunately for the Austrian, it was break point conversion that let him down after having wrested control of the match from Djokovic.
Should he be able to work through that, Thiem could well prove a more than worthy adversary for the biggest in his quarter and perhaps beyond.
Third quarter
Defending champion Stan Wawrinka finds himself a little away from the heavy duty crowd, ensconced in a quiet little corner with Lukas Rosol as his first round opponent. More concerning for him would be a potential second round meeting with Martin Klizan, and a battle of attrition against Gilles Simon in the fourth round.
The other half of this quarter is headlined by eighth seed Milos Raonic, who comes into the tournament with a cloud of uncertainty about his fitness. Raonic had a couple of good wins early in the year, notably against Roger Federer, but has since appeared to fall off the radar.
The Canadian opens against Janko Tipsarevic and could meet Marin Cilic in the fourth round, but a Frenchman (either Lucas Pouille or Julien Benneteau) could also derail Raonic's campaign in the Round of 32.
Wawrinka's draw doesn't look the toughest, but it's always tough to predict how the Swiss will fare in any tournament – he is famously boom-or-bust.
Players to look out for: It’s an easy bet for Wawrinka in this quarter, but given Wawrinka’s notoriously inconsistent form, could we see a repeat of Wawrinka’s 2012 French Open match against Gilles Simon? The Frenchman did eventually lose to his Swiss rival in that match, but it was not an easy victory for Wawrinka by any means.
That 5-setter saw Wawrinka struggle to retain control of the match after winning the first set, with Simon troubling him with consecutive tiebreak set wins.
Fourth quarter
World No. 2 Andy Murray is seeded second at the tournament, and could himself set up another clash with Wawrinka.
The Swiss beat Djokovic in the finals of the tournament last year, while Murray will fancy his own chances should he set up a clash with the Serb, which can only happen in the final. The Scot recently won the Italian Open title on clay with a clinical straight-sets victory over the top-ranked player.
Murray will meet a qualifier in the first round of the tournament; with a number of qualifying events currently underway, the Scot's opponent will not be known to him until the end of that event.
A potential quarter-final between Nishikori and Murray would be an exciting prospect given that both players have seen a resurgence in their clay form. Neither is particularly known for their prowess on the surface, but Murray has won clay titles against some of the best on the surface – Nadal at the 2015 Madrid Masters, and this year against Djokovic at the Italian Open.
Nishikori, meanwhile, not only scalped a set off Djokovic at the semi-finals of the same tournament, but also managed to take the deciding set to a tiebreak – almost controlling the match until the end, and losing by a single point in the final set tiebreak.
Faces to look out for: Mercurial Australian talent Nick Kyrgios. He’s in the same quarter as the second-ranked player, who returned to that ranking after dropping to third following a loss in Madrid.
Going by history, Murray will not be particularly concerned. He’s beaten Kyrgios each time the two have faced off against each other, but the Australian has found some clay court form in recent months.
Most significantly, his last two tournaments – the Italian Open and the Madrid Masters – both saw Kyrgios face off against top 10 opponents – Kei Nishikori in Madrid, and Rafael Nadal in Italy. The youngster took a set off each player and took some control in those matches, so given that his form is on the upswing he could be a contender.
Unfortunately for Kyrgios, however, Frenchman Richard Gasquet, in the same quarter, could cause his ouster. Gasquet has beaten Kyrgios 4 of the 6 times the pair have played each other, and taking resounding victories both times the pair played each other on clay. The two could play each other in the Round of 64, and given that it is Gasquet’s home slam, he could throw a spanner in the Australian’s works.
As of now, it appears to be a fairly straightforward ride for both Kei Nishikori and Andy Murray, who will likely set up a quarter-final clash at this year’s French Open.