French Open 2023: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | Roland Garros
Match Details
Fixture: (2) Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
Tournament: French Open 2023
Date: June 8, 2023
Round: Semi-finals
Venue: Paris, France
Category: Grand Slam
Surface: Outdoor clay
Prize money: €49,600,000
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel, NBC Sports, Peacock TV | Canada - TSN | UK - Eurosport | India - Sony Ten
Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova preview
Second seed Aryna Sabalenka will square off against resurgent World No. 43 Karolina Muchova on Thursday, with a spot in the French Open 2023 final on the line.
Having lifted her maiden Grand Slam crown at the Australian Open in January, Sabalenka continues to impress with her excellent display of tennis. She made the final at Indian Wells and the quarter-finals at Miami before putting together a spectacular clay season.
The Belarusian reached back-to-back finals in Stuttgart and Madrid, winning the title in the latter. She finished second-best to World No. 1 Iga Swiatek in Stuttgart.
Although a second-round exit in Rome was an aberration, the 25-year-old has bounced back well at Roland Garros. With her sights set on the numero uno ranking, the World No. 2 has blitzed through the draw, winning five consecutive matches without dropping a set.
Having dismissed quality opponents such as Marta Kostyuk, Sloane Stephens and Elina Svitolina, Sabalenka has now won 12 Slam matches in a row to make her first semi-final in Paris.
Karolina Muchova dazzled in the 2021 season, reaching the Australian Open semi-finals and the Wimbledon quarter-finals. Her exploits catapulted her to a career-high world ranking of 19.
However, injuries reared their ugly head soon after, as the Czech was unable to build on the momentum. An abdominal issue and a subsequent ankle injury triggered a free fall in the rankings, pushing her down to 235 in the world.
Using protected ranking, the 26-year-old has been re-building her career brick by brick this season. She made the quarter-finals at Indian Wells, Dubai, Auckland, and the Round of 16 in Rome that sent back into the top 50 at 43.
The unseeded Czech started her French Open 2023 campaign with an upset victory over eighth seed Maria Sakkari. She also knocked out 27th seed Irina-Camelia Begu before winning a battle with fellow comeback player Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarter-finals to make the last four in Paris for the first time.
Muchova is now expected to storm her way back into the top 20 following the French Open.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova head-to-head
Sabalenka has a 1-0 lead over Muchova in their head-to-head. The Belarusian edged Muchova 7-5, 7-6(4) in the semifinals at Zhuhai in 2019.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova odds
(Odds sourced from oddschecker)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova prediction
Karolina Muchova is exactly the kind of player that can trouble Aryna Sabalenka. Not only does she hit the ball aggressively, but she is also capable of throwing her opponents off-guard with slices and dropshots. The Czech has the talent and instinct to break the rhythm of big-hitters such as Sabalenka.
However, the World No. 2 has been a different player this year, one who has improved her footwork, defense and most importantly, patience. Moreover, the Belarusian has worked hard on her service woes which were a major issue last year.
Svitolina, with her counterpunching skills and impressive resume on clay, was supposed to be a tough challenge for Sabalenka. However, the Ukrainian didn't get much of a look-in at her second serve either. Sabalenka won 72% of her second-serve points which made a big difference between the two players and also won 12 out of 17 net points.
These stats are crucial for Sabalenka before facing a player of Muchova's caliber. The Czech created 11 break-point opportunities against Pavlyuchenkova but managed to convert only five, something she needs to improve. Taking her chances would be vital if Muchova wants to continue her giant-killing spree.
However, given Sabalenka's immense power and confidence, it might be difficult to consistently break down the Belarusian's game unless she aids by making surplus unforced errors.
Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win in three sets.