Geneva Open 2021: Men's singles draw analysis, preview & prediction
The 2021 Gonet Geneva Open will see World No. 8 Roger Federer make his second comeback to the ATP tour this year. Federer will be the top seed at the event, which is scheduled to begin on 16 May.
Despite the fact that Roger Federer has played in Swiss events on numerous occasions throughout his career, this will be his first ever appearance in Geneva. Denis Shapovalov, Casper Ruud, Grigor Dimitrov, Cristian Garin, Fabio Fognini, Benoit Paire and Adrian Mannarino make up the rest of the top eight seeds.
The Gonet Geneva Open is an ATP 250 claycourt event, with a field of 28 players and total prize money of 419,470 euros. The Swiss claycourt event is returning to the calendar after a gap of one year; the 2020 edition was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The top four seeds have received a bye at the 2021 Geneva Open. On that note, here is a look at how the draw is expected to unfold:
Top half: Roger Federer launches his bid to get ready for the French Open & Wimbledon
Seeded Players: [1] Roger Federer, [3] Casper Ruud, [5] Cristian Garin and [7] Benoit Paire.
Expected semifinal: Roger Federer vs Casper Ruud
Dark horse: Marton Fucsovics
Analysis: As expected, Roger Federer has received a bye in the first round. His first match is likely to be fairly straightforward too, as he is drawn to face either Pablo Andujar or Jordan Thompson in the second round.
Federer hasn't played on clay since the 2019 French Open, but both Andujar and Thompson have both been in woeful form during the ongoing claycourt swing.
Marin Cilic, meanwhile, begins his campaign against Swiss teenage prodigy Dominic Stricker. Stricker will be making his debut on the ATP tour in Geneva, and his lack of experience is likely to give Cilic a huge advantage.
The winner of that match will cross paths against either Cristian Garin or Marton Fucsovics.
While Garin is undoubtedly a top-notch clayourter, he hasn't exactly set the stage on fire this clay season. The Chilean did make the quarterfinals of the Madrid Open, but his opponents were Fernando Verdasco, Dominik Koepfer and Daniil Medvedev - none of whom inspire much confidence on clay.
If he faces Fucsovics in the second round at Geneva, Garin might have a tough task on his hands. Fucsovics led Dominic Thiem by a set and a break in Madrid earlier this week, and would have gained plenty of confidence from that showing.
Going by the seedings, Cristian Garin is Roger Federer's projected third-round opponent.
On the other side of this half, third seed Casper Ruud will take on either Tennys Sandgren or Salvatore Caruso in the second round. Sandgren is currently on a five-match losing streak, and is unlikely to cause Caruso too much trouble.
Veteran Spaniard Feliciano Lopez will open his 2021 Geneva Open campaign against a qualifier in the first round. Lopez's second-round opponent will be either Benoit Paire or Dominik Koepfer, with the winner of that match likely to face Ruud in the quarterfinals.
Bottom half: Denis Shapovalov looks to build on his inspired Rome performance
Seeded Players: [2] Denis Shapovalov, [4] Grigor Dimitrov, [6] Fabio Fognini and [8] Adrian Mannarino.
Expected semifinal: Denis Shapovalov vs Grigor Dimitrov
Dark horse: Reilly Opelka
Analysis: Second seed Denis Shapovalov has received a bye in his first round. He will cross swords with either Stefano Travaglia or a qualifier in the second round.
Shapovalov had a slow start to his claycourt campaign, falling early in Barcelona, Estoril and Madrid. But he then took the world by storm in Rome, pushing Rafael Nadal to the brink in their third-round encounter.
The young Canadian led Nadal by a set and a break, and even held match points, but eventually failed to get past the finish line. Shapovalov will nevertheless look to build upon that performance and possibly go all the way in Geneva.
Laslo Djere, meanwhile, has been drawn against Thiago Monteiro in the first round. Monteiro has lost six of his last seven matches on tour, while Djere has lost his four previous matches.
Djere, however, finished as the runner-up at the Sardegna Open, which makes him the favorite against Monteiro. The winner of this match will lock horns with either Fabio Fognini or Guido Pella.
Fognini and Pella are both experienced dirtballers, but it is Fognini who is in better form right now.
On the other side of this half lies fourth seed Grigor Dimitrov, who has received a bye in the first round. In the second round, the Bulgarian will face either Fernando Verdasco or a qualifier.
Italian Open hero Reilly Opelka has been drawn to face a qualifier in his opening-round fixture. Opelka has a decent chance to go deep in the Swiss event, given that he has been given a relatively straightforward path.
The American has been drawn to face either Adrian Mannarino or Arthur Cazaux in the second round, and a win in that match would likely give him a crack at Dimitrov.
Semifinal predictions
Roger Federer vs Casper Ruud
Denis Shapovalov vs Reilly Opelka
Predicted final
Casper Ruud vs Reilly Opelka
Predicted champion
Casper Ruud