Hamburg European Open 2021: Men's draw analysis, preview & prediction
After Novak Djokovic and Matteo Berrettini fight it out for the Wimbledon title on Sunday, the ATP tour will return to clay with the Hamburg European Open. The German event is scheduled to begin on 12 July and will feature a host of big names including 2020 runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas, who is the top seed.
Pablo Carreno Busta, two-time champion Nikoloz Basilashvili and Albert Ramos-Vinolas complete the top four seeds, and each of the four has received a bye in the first round. Dusan Lajovic, Filip Krajinovic, Jan-Lennard Struff and Benoit Paire find themselves seeded fifth to eighth.
Without further ado, let's take a look at how the draw is expected to unfold:
Top Half: Stefanos Tsitsipas looking to get past Wimbledon disappointment
Seeded players: [1] Stefanos Tsitsipas, [3] Nikoloz Basilashvili, [6] Filip Krajinovic, and [7] Jan-Lennard Struff
Expected semifinal: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Dark horse: Laslo Djere
Analysis: Stefanos Tsitsipas will start his campaign with a second-round encounter against either a qualifier or the dangerous Dominik Koepfer.
Koepfer is a tricky customer on clay, and comes into this event on the back of some decent results this year.
Jaume Munar, meanwhile, will take on Philipp Kohlschreiber in his first-round match. The winner of that encounter will then face either Filip Krajinovic or Daniel Altmaier.
While home favorite Kohlschreiber has the experience and expertise for clay, he might struggle against the 24-year-old Munar. The Spaniard has an ATP final on the surface (Andalucia Open) to his name this year.
Filip Krajinovic is the potential quarterfinal opponent for Stefanos Tsitsipas, based on seedings. But Krajinovic's recent claycourt form leaves a lot to be desired; the Serb has only one completed win in his last seven appearances on the surface.
Two-time Hamburg champion (2018 and 2019) Nikoloz Basilashvili will cross swords with Corentin Moutet or Aljaz Bedene in the second round. Like Tsitsipas, Basilashvili has received a bye in the first round.
Bedene recently defeated Moutet 6-4, 6-4, 6-0 in the first round of Wimbledon. But Moutet plays better on clay than grass, and so should offer the Slovenian a tougher fight this time.
Wildcard entrant Nicola Kuhn takes on a qualifier in the first round. The 21-year-old Kuhn mostly plies his trade on the Challenger circuit, where he has one claycourt title.
Jan-Lennard Struff faces a tricky first-round fixture against Laslo Djere. Struff and Djere have both endured difficult grasscourt campaigns, but will be eager to turn things around on a surface that suits their game.
Despite Djere's form and results on clay this year (runner-up at Sardegna Open), Struff heads into this fixture as the firm favorite. The German is Stefanos Tsitsipas' likely semifinal opponent based on the seedings.
Predicted semifinal: Stefanos Tsitsipas def. Jan-Lennard Struff
Bottom half: Pablo Carreno Busta the headliner as Albert Ramos-Vinolas & Federico Delbonis return to their surface of choice
Seeded players: [2] Pablo Carreno Busta, [4] Albert Ramos-Vinolas, [5] Dusan Lajovic and [8] Benoit Paire
Expected semifinal: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Dark horse: Federico Delbonis
Analysis: Second seed Pablo Carreno Busta and fourth seed Albert Ramos-Vinolas have received a bye in the first round.
Carreno Busta has been drawn to face Feliciano Lopez or a qualifier in the second round. While Lopez has defeated his compatriot before (Los Cabos 2016), they are yet to play each other on clay.
Carreno Busta's has put together a strong record on clay this year, with wins over Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Karen Khachanov and Diego Schwartzman). He also won the title at the Andalucia Open and made a semifinal run at the Barcelona Open.
Fifth seed Dusan Lajovic, meanwhile, takes on Lucas Pouille in the first round. Lajovic's claycourt form has been nothing short of abysmal this year; the Serb lost his first match at Roland Garros, the Italian Open, the Bavarian International (Munich), the Madrid Masters, Monte-Carlo Masters and the Serbia Open.
Pouille has not fared any better, but in the Frenchman's defense, he has not played much since returning to the tour from surgery.
The winner of the Pouille-Lajovic fixture will lock horns with either Gianluca Mager or a qualifier in the second round. The winner of that match will likely be Pablo Carreno Busta's quarterfinal opponent.
Federico Delbonis has been drawn to face a qualifier in the opening round. If he crosses that hurdle, he will face Albert Ramos-Vinolas in a potentially enthralling second-round fixture.
Both men have posted good results on clay in the recent past; Ramos-Vinolas even won the Estoril Open. Delbonis, on his part, made the fourth round at Roland Garros, the semifinals of the Chile Open, and the quarterfinals of the Italian Open.
Delbonis leads Ramos-Vinolas 5-2 in the head-to-head, with all seven of their fixtures being played on clay. Interestingly, the Argentine has the exact same head-to-head count against Carreno Busta, with four of his five wins coming on clay.
Eighth seed Benoit Paire opens his campaign against Ricardas Berankis in the first round. The winner of that match will play a qualifier in the second, and possibly Delbonis or Ramos-Vinolas in the quarterfinals.
Predicted semifinal: Federico Delbonis def. Pablo Carreno Busta
Final prediction
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Federico Delbonis
Predicted champion
Stefanos Tsitsipas