How Rafael Nadal can dethrone Carlos Alcaraz and regain World No. 1 ranking
Rafael Nadal's bid to regain the World No. 1 ranking before the season ends is still alive after it received a boost at the Swiss Indoors Basel. Even though the Spaniard himself did not play in the tournament, his compatriot and current No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz's semifinal loss has made things interesting heading into Paris and Turin.
Alcaraz could have taken a big step towards sealing the year-end top spot in the rankings for the very first time in his career had he won the title in Basel. He failed to do so, but he also ensured that he did not drop many points this week, matching his run to the 2021 Vienna Open semifinals.
As things stand, World No. 2 Nadal is 920 points behind with 5,810 ranking points to his name compared to Alcaraz's 6,730 points. Nadal, who has no points to defend, will get his first shot at regaining the No. 1 spot at this week's Paris Masters. Alcaraz defends 90 points from last year's Round of 16 showing in Paris, bringing the gap between the two Spaniards down to 830 points.
To become World No. 1 again by the end of this week, nothing less than winning the Paris Masters title will suffice for Nadal, while Alcaraz must lose before the quarterfinals in Paris. Meanwhile, if Alcaraz wins the Paris Masters title, beating anyone other than Nadal in the final, he will end his compatriot's hopes for the year-end top spot.
Even if he does not win the title, a deep run in Paris for the 36-year-old with an early loss for the 19-year-old will certainly boost the former's year-end No. 1 chances.
Another 1500 points will be up for grabs in the ATP Finals, this time even for Alcaraz as he makes his debut in the tournament and has no points to defend there. If Nadal does not win the Paris title and loses early, he would still have a genuine chance at the No. 1 ranking, only if he wins the ATP Finals title, or atleast makes the final, depending on Alcaraz's progress in both scenarios.
Realistically, the 22-time Grand Slam champion will need to make a deep run, not just in Paris, but also in Turin, to ensure Alcaraz does not leapfrog him again. While Alcaraz is yet to really prove his mettle in indoor hardcourt conditions, the Mallorcan is also yet to win either the Paris Masters or ATP Finals.
Not to forget, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud are also alive in the year-end No. 1 race, and can overtake both Spaniards with very strong performances in both tournaments. Current No. 3 Daniil Medvedev, however, will drop out of the race after losing valuable points from last year's ATP Finals and Paris Masters runs.
Rafael Nadal chases record-setting year-end No. 1 ranking
Rafael Nadal is chasing his sixth year-end No. 1 ranking. While his great rival Novak Djokovic holds the record for most instances ending the year as the top-ranked player (7), the Spaniard could become the oldest ever No. 1 at the end of the season, at the age of 36-and-a-half, if he clinches the spot at the end of the 2022 ATP Finals. Djokovic is currently the oldest year-end No. 1 after he set the record at the age of 34 last year.
Nadal's last appearance in the season finale came back in 2020, when he made the semifinals. While he has never won an ATP Finals title, he has reached two finals, in 2010 and 2013.
This week's Paris Masters will be the Spaniard's first singles tournament since the US Open, where he will begin his campaign against either Roberto Bautista Agut or Tommy Paul.
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