How should Rafael Nadal deal with the 2013 ATP calendar?

Barely had Nadal kept himself out of action for the last seven months due to an injury when the world of tennis witnessed many first time happenings. As big a player the Spaniard is, his absence last year resulted in bigger impacts. During his sabbatical last year, what have we not seen? An altogether new rivalry coming into prominence, the emergence of the first British Grand Slam winner in 76 years, the resurgence of the Spanish bull called David Ferrer; we have seen it all.

But now, he is back. Yes, he is in Chile right now, playing in his first tournament since his second round exit from Wimbledon 2012. As a result, a tournament which was often overlooked in the ATP calendar finally has got its biggest publicity this year, all thanks to Nadal. Since this ATP 250 event does not feature any other big names from the top 10, the Spanish Armada should ideally be treating it as a warm up event. More so, he has started emphatically in both singles and doubles without dropping a set and as I write, he has reached the semifinals of both the categories. Now this tournament is going to be a cake walk for the former world No.1.

So, presumably, he would be winning this ATP event as expected and would be doing so unscathed. However, the things are not going to be easy anymore for the Spaniard, looking into the long calendar ahead. Getting through the upcoming Masters tournaments like Indian Wells, Sony Ericsson open, Montecarlo, Rome and Madrid might take a huge toll on the southpaw if he lets his knees get overworked. Very few of the players ranked inside top 20 are is expected to miss those tournaments and so Rafa would need to fight his heart out if he wishes to do well in the lead up to his favourite surface – Roland Garros. He has to work on his game very carefully and see to that he does not invite injuries again.

No one expects Nadal as a player to give more than 100 percent. It is enough if you can give your 100 percent while playing. But in Rafa’s case, he seems to overdo things many a times. The heroics of fetching the balls from the corners, though look good from  a spectator’s point of view, in the longer run they are going to harm the player. It is accepted that the physical brutality of the game of tennis has reached its pinnacle nowadays, so much so that it demands hard grinding play from the baseline. So in order to stand toe to toe with your opponents you are forced to toil hard from the back of the court to earn every point. It means you are attempting to make super human efforts to bring the balls back into play, which under normal circumstances, would have gone past you for winners. This is what Rafael Nadal has done throughout his career – something which we, as the viewers, look forward to seeing from him.

We cannot find faults with the seven times French open champion for being so athletic because he plays the game where every point counts. Recklessness is one thing which can kill a tennis player and so Rafa is fully justified in chasing and collecting the balls out of nowhere. But that does not mean he is doing the right thing either. The eleven times Grand Slam champion should know pretty well that it is not advisable for him to run into injuries very frequently like he has been doing for the past three years. In order to stretch your tennis career, you need to stay injury-free; something Roger Federer has been doing all these years.

The primary problem concerning Rafa is that he always starts every round as though he is aiming for a bagel. In the past, he has tried demolishing his adversaries rather than just defeating them. Right from the initial rounds of any Grand Slam or even ATP masters tournament, where he faces weaker competitors, he ran and churned hard to accumulate points. This is what I believe would have hurt him pretty badly in 2009 and also 2012. Some of the bottom ranked players who were up against him at the start of any tournament could have been beaten easily by him even with one of his eyes closed. Nadal should have instead conserved his energy against the guys who were not even half as good as him. Once in a while, a player like Rosol or Soderling could cause an upset no doubt and so no one can be taken lightly. But those things happen only once in a blue moon and so Rafa should not be unduly concerned about that. It would be enough if he could play his normal tennis to beat his opponents at least till the fourth round and from thereon he can unleash his relentless baseline tennis in the ensuing games.

Now let us look into this year, tournament by tournament, to see how Rafa can try promoting himself up the ranking ladder. Sadly, a player who was used to hovering between the first two places of the ATP rankings for the last eight years or so has now been pushed to the fifth position due to the seven month lay-off, which began from July last year. It looks obvious now that he will prevail in Chile, fetching himself 250 points. But since the points separating him and the person in fourth position, David Ferrer, are more than 1400, whatever he obtains by winning in Chile would hardly make a difference.

Once this tournament gets over, the Spaniard would be left to defend full points in four out of the next eight tournaments. He would be defending his titles at Montecarlo, Barcelona, Rome and of course Roland Garros. Failing to appear in any of those four tournaments or losing anywhere in the middle would result in a big deduction of points for him. Rafa would be really wary of these repercussions. The points he would lose would result in more problems for Rafa as he may even go a step down in the rankings. It only means that he would be up against some quality players during the initial stages itself which would again be a worrying situation for him, going into the Grand Slam events. Given the manner in which Djokovic and Murray are playing nowadays, it is highly unlikely that he would be able to make a clean sweep on red clay surfaces just as he did last year. The surface of clay might be his favourite, but it cannot be forgotten that it was where he was beaten twice by Djokovic in 2011 (once in Rome and then once in Madrid).

Nadal’s best efforts must therefore be channelled in the next two hard court tournaments coming up, one at Indian Wells and the other one at Miami. He should really try winning at least one of these two, and try reaching the final in the other. If he could muster wins in both the events, then nothing like it. As he is not defending his titles in the said tournaments and was ousted at the semifinals stages last time around, he stands to gain more if he captures victories or makes it to the finals this year. If that happens, even if he gets vanquished in two of the five clay court tournaments to come, en route to final, the damage will not be that big. And since clay has always been his preferred surface, he would at least be reaching the finals of those tournaments, if he does not go on to win them. So, even in the worst case scenario, he would not fall behind much in terms of points.

Once the clay court season is done and dusted, then it would just be an ideal set up for Rafa to gain more ATP points. By the time the grass court season begins, he would have regained his lost form which means he would make his progress, if anything, till the semifinals of each event. And due to the fact that he will defending no points at all once Wimbledon gets over, every single match that he manages to win in the tournaments to follow would only add to his points tally. Unlike David Ferrer who was not able to land a knock-out punch in the big tournaments when pitted against the other members of top four, Nadal would not only manage reaching the finals but would also be able find a few wins for himself. So, Rafa must concentrate more on tournaments which follow Wimbledon where he has nothing to lose. Even by not putting more than 100 percent efforts, Rafa can make inroads into the top of the rankings quite comfortably by not torturing his body so much, as he used to do previously.

I think Nadal might come back with a vengeance in this year’s Wimbledon. That said, he needs to be a bit circumspect in preserving his knees and conserving his energy.