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Indian Wells 2024: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | BNP Paribas Open

Match Details

Fixture: (2) Carlos Alcaraz vs (3) Jannik Sinner

Date: March 16, 2024

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, US

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize Money: $8,995,555

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel/TC Plus | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN


Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner preview

Carlos Alcaraz at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open.
Carlos Alcaraz at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open.

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will face off in a blockbuster semifinal showdown at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open on Saturday.

Alcaraz commenced his title defense with wins over Matteo Arnaldi, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Fabian Marozsan to reach the quarterfinals. He was up against sixth seed Alexander Zverev for a place in the last four.

The match had to be suspended after just a couple of games into the first set as a swarm of bees invaded the court. The play resumed after some time and Alcaraz was the one to land the first blow as he broke Zverev's serve in the fourth game to go 3-1 up.

Alcaraz safeguarded that lead quite well and went on to claim the first set. The second set was quite one-sided as the Spaniard lost just one game in it to eventually register a 6-3, 6-1 victory.

Sinner defeated Thanasi Kokkinakis, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Ben Shelton to make the quarterfinals, where 32nd seed Jiri Lehecka awaited him. The Italian snagged an early break in the first set to lead 2-1.

Lehecka later served to stay in the set at 5-3 and Sinner broke his serve once again to take the set. The latter raced to a 4-1 lead in the next set as well to take control of the match. He then missed a couple of match points on his opponent's serve at 5-2 but closed out the proceedings in the next game for a 6-3, 6-3 win.


Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner head-to-head

Sinner leads Alcaraz 4-3 in the head-to-head. The Italian won their previous encounter at the 2023 China Open in straight sets.


Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Carlos Alcaraz+125
-1.5 (+260)
Over 22.5 (-110)
Jannik Sinner-160
+1.5 (-400)
Under 22.5 (-130)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner prediction

Jannik Sinner at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open.
Jannik Sinner at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open.

Alcaraz avenged his recent Australian Open loss to Zverev with a comprehensive win over him at Indian Wells. It marked his 10th consecutive win at the venue. The Spaniard has played some inspired tennis throughout the tournament so far.

Sinner showed no signs of slowing down as his win over Lehecka extended his winning streak to 16 matches this year. He has also won his last couple of matches against Alcaraz, though the latter did defeat him en route to the title here last year.

Their rivalry has been compelling to witness and with both being in great form at the moment, this encounter promises to be a thriller. Alcaraz had played a bit defensively over the last few months but has discarded that approach here.

The Spaniard's blistering forehand has been the talk of the week, along with his court coverage and variety. Sinner has been the man to beat all season and given how Alcaraz has played the last few days, he could snap his winning streak.

But the Italian has all the necessary tools to counter his opponent's tactics. With momentum on his side, he'll be favored to notch up another win in this rivalry to reach the final here.

Pick: Jannik Sinner to win in three sets.

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