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Indian Wells 2024: Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul preview, head-to-head, odds & prediction | BNP Paribas Open

Match Details

Fixture: (4) Daniil Medvedev vs (16) Tommy Paul

Date: March 16, 2024

Tournament: BNP Paribas Open

Round: Semifinals

Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, US

Category: ATP 1000

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize Money: $8,995,555

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel/TC Plus | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul preview

Medvedev celebrates a point at the Indian Wells
Medvedev celebrates a point at the Indian Wells

Fourth seed Daniil Medvedev will square off against Tommy Paul in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open on Friday (March 16).

Medvedev has made a solid start to the season, amassing 13 wins from 15 matches and a runner-up finish at the Australian Open. He also reached the semifinals of the Dubai Tennis Championships.

The Russian began his campaign at the Indian Wells, outsmarting the likes of Roberto Carballes Baena and Sebastian Korda. He then showed his class against Grigor Dimitrov and Holger Rune en route to the semifinals . Medvedev outfoxed the Danish talent Rune 7-5, 6-4 in the quarterfinals.

Tommy Paul serves at the Indian Wells
Tommy Paul serves at the Indian Wells

Meanwhile, Tommy Paul made a slow start to the season, but picked up the pace during the American hardcourt swing. The World No. 17 has chalked up 14 wins from 18 matches, including a title-winning run at the Dallas Open and a runner-up finish at the Delray Beach Open.

Paul began his campaign in Indian Wells by breezing past Alex Michelsen and Ugo Humbert in straight sets. He then defeated the likes of Luca Nardi and NorCasper Ruud en route to the semifinals. Paul overpowered the Norwegian Ruud in two hours and nine minutes 6-2, 1-6, 6-3.


Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul head-to-head

Medvedev leads the head-to-head against Paul 2-0. He defeated the American most recently in the first round of the China Open 2023.


Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul odds

Player Name Moneyline Handicap Bets Total Games 
Daniil Medvedev-275-1.5 (-110)Over 21.5 (-120)
Tommy Paul +210+1.5 (-125)Under 21.5 (-120)

All odds sourced from BETMGM.


Daniil Medvedev vs Tommy Paul prediction

Medvedev at the Indian Wells
Medvedev at the Indian Wells

A gripping encounter is on the cards between Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open. Both players have put up a commendable performance at the Masters 1000 event so far, and will be eager to go the distance.

Medvedev seems to be playing at a higher level than most of his peers at the moment. His anticipation, awareness and quick decision-making skill complement his vigorous all round game. The Russian has only dropped one set in the tournament so far.

Paul, on the contrary, has emerged as a dark horse at the Indian Wells. He entered California on the back of a disappointing first round exit at the Mexican Open, but has successfully turned the tides in his favor. The American is known for his resilient defensive game and exquisite movement on court.

Ultimately, the player who recovers well and executes his strategy clinically will have the upper hand in this bout. The local crowd will boost Paul’s chances of getting over the line in the semifinals, but the hardcourt specialist Medvedev should be able to use his experience and pass this test. The Russian should reach his second consecutive final at the BNP Paribas Open.

Pick: Medvedev to win in three-sets.

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