Indian Wells 2024: Men's singles draw analysis, preview and prediction ft. potential Novak Djokovic-Daniil Medvedev SF | BNP Paribas Open
The men's singles draw for the 2024 BNP Paribas Open has been made public and we are in for two weeks of exciting tennis action.
Carlos Alcaraz won the Masters 1000 event last year, but he is bound to have a tough title defense due to his rough form and the presence of some top players in the draw.
The likes of Novak Djokovic, Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev are all capable of challenging for the title, so are the likes of Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev.
On that note, let's take a look at how the men's singles draw at the BNP Paribas Open 2024 might unfold.
First Quarter: Novak Djokovic eyeing record 6th title at Indian Wells
Seeded players: (1) Novak Djokovic, (8) Hubert Hurkacz, (9) Casper Ruud, (14) Ugo Humbert, (17) Tommy Paul, (23) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, (28) Cameron Norrie, (30) Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Expected quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud
Dark horse: Gael Monfils
Analysis: Top seed Novak Djokovic will be making his first appearance in Indian Wells since 2019 and he should have little trouble reaching the fourth round. Here, the Serb would face either 14th seed Ugo Humbert or 17th seed Tommy Paul.
Djokovic should be able to beat either player and reach the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open.
The other side of this quarter has eighth seed Casper Ruud and ninth seed Hubert Hurkacz. While the likes of Gael Monfils, Cameron Norrie and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina are all capable of doing well at their best, it will most likely come down to Ruud and Hurkacz for a place in the quarterfinals.
Ruud had a good run to the final in Acapulco and there is a good chance of him coming out on top to reach the last eight of the BNP Paribas Open.
Djokovic has won each of his past matches against Casper Ruud and should be able to get the better of the Norwegian given his current form to reach the semifinals in Indian Wells.
Quarterfinal prediction: Novak Djokovic def. Casper Ruud
Second Quarter: Rafael Nadal handed a tough draw
Seeded players: (4) Daniil Medvedev, (7) Holger Rune, (12) Taylor Fritz, (13) Grigor Dimitrov, (19) Sebastian Baez, (21) Adrian Mannarino, (26) Lorenzo Musetti, (29) Sebastian Korda
Expected quarterfinal: Daniil Medvedev vs Taylor Fritz
Dark horse: Rafael Nadal
Analysis: Last year's runner-up Daniil Medvedev is in this quarter and will start his campaign against either Flavio Cobolli or Roberto Carballes Baena. He should be able to beat either player and reach the third round, where his opponent would be 29th seed Sebastian Korda.
Medvedev will most likely beat the American and reach the fourth round, where he will probably take on 13th seed Grigor Dimitrov. While Dimitrov has produced some promising tennis over the past few months, the Russian has a good chance of making it to the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open.
The other side of this draw has Rafael Nadal, who will be up against Milos Raonic in the first round. The Spaniard will most likely edge out the Canadian to reach the second round. Here, he will be up against seventh seed Holger Rune who hasn't been in the best of form lately.
Nadal might be able to get the better of Rune and if that happens, he should be able to beat whoever he faces in the third round to reach the Round of 16. Here, the 37-year-old will be up against 12th seed Taylor Fritz.
The American is capable of producing some fine tennis and there is a good chance of him beating Nadal to reach the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open.
Medvedev and Fritz might lock horns in the last eight and the Russian's quality on hardcourts should see him reach the semifinals in Indian Wells.
Quarterfinal prediction: Daniil Medvedev def. Taylor Fritz
Third Quarter: Jannik Sinner will look to continue good run of form
Seeded players: (3) Jannik Sinner, (5) Andrey Rublev, (11) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (16) Ben Shelton, (18) Frances Tiafoe, (22) Francisco Cerundolo, (25) Jan-Lennard Struff, (32) Jiri Lehecka
Expected quarterfinal: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev
Dark horse: Christopher Eubanks
Analysis: Third seed Jannik Sinner is in this quarter of the draw and will take on either Thanasi Kokkinakis or Marcos Giron. The Italian should be able to win the match and shouldn't have much trouble reaching the fourth round, given his current run of form.
Here, he will most likely take on Ben Shelton. While the American is a formidable opponent, Sinner should be able to get the better of him and reach the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open.
The other side of this quarter has fifth seed Andrey Rublev who should not have much trouble to reach the fourth round, even though the likes of Andy Murray, Christopher Eubanks and Jiri Lehecka should not be written off.
Here, the Russian will take on either Frances Tiafoe or Stefanos Tsitsipas and should be able to make it to the quarterfinals in Indian Wells.
Sinner and Rublev will face one another in the last eight and considering the form of both, there is a good chance the former will win like he did at the Australian Open and reach the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open.
Quarterfinal prediction: Jannik Sinner def. Andrey Rublev
Fourth Quarter: Carlos Alcaraz will look to overturn patchy form at BNP Paribas Open
Seeded players: (2) Carlos Alcaraz, (6) Alexander Zverev, (10) Alex de Minaur, (15) Karen Khachanov, (20) Alexander Bublik, (24) Nicolas Jarry, (27) Tallon Griekspoor, (31) Felix Auger-Aliassime
Expected quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur
Dark horse: Jack Draper
Analysis: Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is in this quarter of the draw and will face either Luca van Assche or Matteo Arnaldi in the second round. The Spaniard will most likely take on 31st seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in the third round and should be able to beat him and reach the fourth round in Indian Wells.
Here, Alcaraz will most likely take on 15th seed Karen Khachanov and beat him to reach the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open.
The other side of this quarter has sixth seed Alexander Zverev and tenth seed Alex de Minaur. While 20th seed Alexander Bublik has a fair chance of reaching the fourth round, it will most likely come down to Zverev and De Minaur fighting for a place in the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open.
The Aussie has looked in good form lately and recently won the Mexican Open in Acapulco. So there's a good chance of him coming out on top to reach the last eight of the BNP Paribas Open.
Alcaraz and De Minaur will lock horns in the quarterfinals and the Aussie might just be able to edge out the Spaniard, considering the recent forms of both players.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Alex de Minaur def. Carlos Alcaraz
Semifinal and final predictions
The first predicted semifinal is between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev and while the Serb will enter the match as the favorite to win, the Russian plays his best tennis on hard courts. Hence, it won't be a surprise if Medvedev triumphs over Djokovic.
The other semifinal would be between Jannik Sinner and Alex de Minaur. Sinner has won all of his prior encounters against the Aussie and given his run of form, he will be expected to come out on top and reach the final.
Predicted final: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev.
We could have a rematch of the Australian Open final at the BNP Paribas Open title clash. Sinner has won each of his last four matches against Medvedev, but the Russian gave him a run for his money in Melbourne. However, the kind of tennis the Italian is playing, there is a fair chance of him coming out on top and winning his second title at the BNP Paribas Open.
Predicted winner: Jannik Sinner