Indian Wells 2024: Women's singles draw analysis, preview and prediction ft. potential Iga Swiatek-Ons Jabeur QF | BNP Paribas Open
The women's singles draw for the 2024 BNP Paribas Open has been made public on March 4 and we are in for some high-octane tennis action in Indian Wells.
Elena Rybakina won last year's tournament by beating Aryna Sabalenka in the final and will be a heavy favorite to lift the trophy in 2024 as well. However, the Kazakhstani will not have it easy, as there are quite a few players who can pose a threat to her.
The likes of Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff are all title contenders, and so are the likes of Jessica Pegula, Zheng Qinwen and Ons Jabeur.
On that note, let's take a look at how the women's singles draw might unfold at the 2024 BNP Paribas Open.
First Quarter: Iga Swiatek will aim to win second BNP Paribas Open title
Seeded players: (1) Iga Swiatek, (6) Ons Jabeur, (10) Jelena Ostapenko, (15) Ekaterina Alexandrova, (17) Veronika Kudermetova, (18) Madison Keys, (25) Donna Vekic, (26) Linda Noskova.
Expected quarterfinal: Iga Swiatek vs Ons Jabeur.
Dark horse: Danielle Collins.
Analysis: Top seed Iga Swiatek is in this half and will kick off her campaign against either Danielle Collins or a qualifier. The Pole will most likely face Linda Noskova in the third round and should be able to avenge her 2024 Australian Open loss.
Swiatek will probably take on either Madison Keys or Ekaterina Alexandrova in the fourth round and should beat either of the two to reach the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open.
The other side of this quarter contains sixth seed Ons Jabeur, tenth seed Jelena Ostapenko, 17th seed Veronika Kudermetova, and 25th seed Donna Vekic. It also has some tennis royalty in the form of Venus Williams and Angelique Kerber.
It will most likely come down to a match against Jabeur and Ostapenko for a place in the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open. While Ostapenko has looked in good touch, Jabeur has had a considerable break before the tournament and if she is at her best, she should be able to reach the last eight of the WTA 1000 event.
Swiatek and Jabeur will face one another and the former's quality and recent form should see her make it to the semifinals of. However, it won't be much of a surprise if the Tunisian comes out on top.
Quarterfinal prediction: Iga Swiatek def. Ons Jabeur.
Second Quarter: Elena Rybakina will aim to defend her title
Seeded players: (4) Elena Rybakina, (7) Marketa Vondrousova, (12) Beatriz Haddad Maia, (13) Jasmine Paolini, (21) Anna Kalinskaya, (22) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, (28) Anastasia Potapova, (31) Marta Kostyuk.
Expected quarterfinal: Elena Rybakina vs Marketa Vondrousova.
Dark horse: Marie Bouzkova.
Analysis: Defending champion Elena Rybakina is in this quarter and will lock horns with either Paula Badosa or Ashlyn Krueger in the second round. The Kazakh should be able to reach the fourth round of the BNP Paribas Open with little trouble and will most likely face reigning Dubai champion Jasmine Paolini.
Rybakina withdrew from her match against the Italian in Dubai but should be able to get the better of her, given her quality, to reach the last eight of the BNP Paribas Open.
The other side of this quarter has the likes of 2023 Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova, Beatriz Haddad Maia, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Marta Kostyuk. Vondrousova did well to reach the last eight in Dubai and should be able to reach the fourth round here, too.
The Czech will face Haddad Maia here and should just about be able to defeat the Brazilian due to her aggression and reach the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open.
Rybakina and Vondrousova will probably face one another for a place in the semifinals and the former's composure could see her triumph over the latter to reach the final four in Indian Wells.
Quarterfinal prediction: Elena Rybakina def. Marketa Vondrousova.
Third Quarter: Coco Gauff, Zheng Qinwen and Daria Kasatkina will be in contention for QF spots
Seeded players: (3) Coco Gauff, (8) Zheng Qinwen, (11) Daria Kasatkina, (14) Liudmila Samsonova, (19) Sorana Cirstea, (24) Elise Mertens, (27) Victoria Azarenka, (32) Anhelina Kalinina
Expected quarterfinal: Coco Gauff vs Daria Kasatkina
Dark horse: Naomi Osaka
Analysis: Third seed Coco Gauff is in this quarter and her form over the past 6-7 months should see her reach the fourth round with little problem. Here, she will most likely face Liudmila Samsonova, even though the likes of Naomi Osaka and Elise Mertens should not be written off. The American might beat the Russian with ease and reach the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open.
The other side of this quarter has the likes of Daria Kasatkina, Zheng Qinwen and Victoria Azarenka. However, it will most likely come down to Kasatkina and Zheng locking horns for a place in the quarterfinals. While the Chinese produced some good performances in recent months, most notably at the Australian Open where she reached the final, the Russian should manage to edge her out to reach the last eight of the BNP Paribas Open.
Gauff and Kasatkina will be expected to play out an exciting encounter and the former's good form along with the crowd support should see her reach the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open.
Quarterfinal prediction: Coco Gauff def. Daria Kasatkina.
Fourth Quarter: Aryna Sabalenka will aim to go a step further than 2023 at BNP Paribas Open 2024
Seeded players: (2) Aryna Sabalenka, (5) Jessica Pegula, (9) Maria Sakkari, (16) Elina Svitolina, (20) Caroline Garcia, (23) Emma Navarro, (29) Leylah Fernandez, (30) Dayana Yastremska.
Expected quarterfinal: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula.
Dark horse: Karolina Pliskova.
Analysis: Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka will be a heavy favorite to win the BNP Paribas Open 2024 and reaching the fourth round should not be a trouble for her as the likes of Emma Raducanu, Elisabetta Cocciaretto and Peyton Stearns are players she can beat comprehensively.
Here, the Belarusian will most likely face 16th seed Elina Svitolina and should be able to defeat her to reach the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open.
The other side of this quarter has the likes of Jessica Pegula, Maria Sakkari, Leylah Fernandez and Caroline Garcia. Pegula could face Karolina Pliskova and Leylah Fernandez, but she should manage to reach the fourth round.
Here, she will most likely face Caroline Garcia or Maria Sakkari. The American will most likely beat either of the two and reach the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open.
Sabalenka and Pegula will lock horns in the quarterfinals and while the latter can beat the Belarusian on her day, the former at her lethal best should be able to get the win and reach the semifinals in Indian Wells.
Quarterfinal prediction: Aryna Sabalenka def. Jessica Pegula.
Semifinal and final predictions
The first predicted semifinal is between Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina in a rematch of the 2024 Qatar Open final.
Swiatek got the better of the Kazakhstani in Doha, but the latter had beaten her before and should be able to do so again if she is at her fittest. Rybakina's composure will come in very handy and might just about see her get the better of the World No. 1.
The second semifinal would be between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff. This will be expected to be a tightly contested clash. While Gauff will have the support of the whole crowd, Sabalenka's intensity should see her get the better of the American and reach her second successive final at the BNP Paribas Open.
Predicted final: Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka.
We might have a rematch of last year's final. If Rybakina is at her best, she should be able to defeat Sabalenka to successfully defend her title at the BNP Paribas Open.
Predicted winner: Elena Rybakina.