Is Aryna Sabalenka the favourite for the US Open women's singles title now after Cincinnati Open win?
Aryna Sabalenka defeated Jessica Pegula 6-3, 7-5 in the final to win the Cincinnati Open 2024. It was her 15th career title, and sixth at the WTA 1000 level. It was also her second title of the season following her triumph at the Australian Open at the start of the year.
It was the Belarusian's first WTA 1000 title since winning the Madrid Open last year. She came close to defending her title in the Spanish capital this year but let go of three championship points as Iga Swiatek turned the tables on her to claim the title.
Sabalenka was in fine form throughout the week in Cincinnati. She didn't drop a set all week, and defeated some quality opposition, including the top-ranked Swiatek. After losing her last three matches against the Pole, it was a much-needed win for her.
She's now the frontrunner to win the US Open, and here's a brief look into why she's the favorite to do so:
Aryna Sabalenka has been improving with every tournament this summer
Sabalenka has been slowly garnering momentum since her return from a shoulder injury which ruled her out of Wimbledon. She reached the semifinals of the Citi Open in Washington immediately upon her comeback, and then made the quarterfinals of the Canadian Open.
But there were some glaring liabilities in her game those two weeks, and she was still finding her footing after a few weeks away from the tour. It all fell into place at the Cincinnati Open. The fast conditions accentuated her game, and she didn't let the rain delays and windy conditions affect her focus or shotmaking.
While the physical aspects of her game held up quite well, Sabalenka's nerves did make things slightly difficult for her. She needed 10 match points to get past Swiatek in the semifinals, after being 5-1, 40-0 up on the latter's serve in the second set.
After impeccable serving throughout the match in the final, Sabalenka got broken while serving for the title. However, she broke back immediately and closed out the match with ease on her second attempt. Despite some shaky moments, she regained her composure and didn't let the situation spiral out of control.
Sabalenka won 80 percent of her first serve points on average in Cincinnati, and won an average of 64 percent of second serve points. She threw in only eight double faults throughout the tournament, including one each in the semifinal and the final.
The Belarusian's winner to unforced error ratio was also reasonable, and she didn't go overboard with her powerful ballstriking. A part of her success can be attributed to the fast conditions in Cincinnati.
There have been conflicting reports about the court speed at the US Open. While initial reports stated that it would be on the faster side, players who are currently competing in the qualifying rounds there have stated otherwise. Regardless of that, players who have done well at the Cincinnati Open have carried over that form to New York as well in recent years.
Coco Gauff won the Cincinnati Open last year and then emerged victorious at the US Open. Caroline Garcia won the former tournament in 2022, and then made the semifinals of the latter event. Naomi Osaka was the runner-up in Cincinnati in 2020, and won the US Open that year. Sabalenka's current form, and her past results in New York, do tip the scales in her favor as well.
Aryna Sabalenka's track record at the US Open further boosts her chances of a maiden triumph at the venue
Sabalenka made her debut at the US Open in 2018 and has compiled a 21-6 career record at the venue since then. 16 of those victories have come in the last three editions. Osaka is the only player with a better record than her during this time period, with a 22-5 record.
Sabalenka finished as the runner-up to Gauff last year, and made the semifinals the previous two years. Serena Williams was the last player before her to reach at least three straight semifinals, doing the same from 2018 to 2020.
The Belarusian reached the semifinals of every Major starting from the 2022 US Open until this year's Australian Open. The streak came to an end in the quarterfinals of this year's French Open, partly because she was down with a stomach bug which impacted her performance.
Sabalenka also has a clear upper hand against her main rivals at the moment. Swiatek won the US Open in 2022, but hasn't performed well at any other Major besides the French Open since then. Gauff crashed out in the second round of the Cincinnati Open, as did Elena Rybakina.
Pegula has been in good form but she hasn't been beyond the quarterfinals of a Major in singles. The depth on the WTA Tour does leave the door open for some other player to peak during the fortnight, or for a former champion to re-assert themselves with a strong showing.
The stage is set for Sabalenka's crowning in New York. She has what it takes to go all the way, and given her form, it would be quite disappointing for her to miss out on hoisting another Major trophy.