Italian Open 2021: Women's singles draw analysis, preview & prediction
Following a week of high-octane action in Madrid, the women's tour is set to move to the Italian capital for the season's second WTA 1000 claycourt tournament. Leading the pack at the 2021 Italian Open in Rome are top seed Ashleigh Barty and defending champion Simona Halep.
Former winners Elina Svitolina, Karolina Pliskova and Serena Williams further crowd the packed field, along with other top names like Naomi Osaka, Aryna Sabalenka, Petra Kvitova, Garbine Muguruza and Iga Swiatek. With main draw action set to begin on Monday, here is a look at the prospects of the top names in the fray:
1st quarter: Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka look to continue their rivalry
Top seeded players: [1] Ashleigh Barty, [7] Aryna Sabalenka, [9] Karolina Pliskova, [14] Elise Mertens
Expected quarterfinal: Ashleigh Barty vs Aryna Sabalenka
Dark horse: Veronika Kudermetova
Ashleigh Barty hasn't lost a match on red clay since she last played here in Rome a couple of years ago. The top seed has been in fine form lately and could well enter this year's tournament with three consecutive titles on red clay under her belt - including her 2019 French Open triumph.
The first real test for Barty will come in the form of a third-round meeting against either Elise Mertens or Veronika Kudermetova, both of whom have played some fine tennis this year. The quarterfinals could then be a rematch of the last two WTA finals, as an in-form Aryna Sabalenka awaits Barty there.
But the Belarusian - who has been striking the ball cleanly the last few weeks - will be expecting some resistance in her opener. She will square off with either the mercurial Camila Giorgi or Guadalajara champion Sara Sorribes Tormo first up.
Sabalenka can expect another challenge from Karolina Pliskova in the last-16, provided that the Czech can gets past the likes of Venus Williams and Coco Gauff in her opening two rounds.
Predicted quarterfinal: Ashleigh Barty def. Aryna Sabalenka
2nd quarter: A slew of in-form players look to topple Elina Svitolina and Sofia Kenin
Top seeded players: [4] Sofia Kenin, [5] Elina Svitolina, [12] Garbine Muguruza, [15] Iga Swiatek
Expected quarterfinal: Sofia Kenin vs Elina Svitolina
Dark horse: Karolina Muchova
The second quarter could throw up a 2020 Roland Garros final rematch as early as the third round itself. But for that to happen, Sofia Kenin and Iga Swiatek will have to get past Barobora Krejcikova and Karolina Muchova respectively.
Swiatek in particular will need to be wary of Muchova, who looked in pristine form at Madrid last week.
A Garbine Muguruza vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova first round anchors the other section of the quarter. The winner of that encounter is likely to play Maria Sakkari in the next match, but should have enough momentum to book a spot against two-time former champion Elina Svitolina in the third round.
Prediction: Iga Swiatek def. Elina Svitolina
3rd quarter: Simona Halep, Petra Kvitova and Bianca Andreescu to fight for supremacy
Top seeded players: [3] Simona Halep, [8] Bianca Andreescu, [11] Petra Kvitova, [16] Johanna Konta
Expected quarterfinal: Simona Halep vs Bianca Andreescu
Dark horse: Jill Tiechmann
Bianca Andreescu has a potentially tricky opener as she is set to play the winner of an exciting first-round match between Anastasija Sevastova and Jil Teichmann.
Both Sevastova and Teichmann have had a few promising results in the first quarter of 2021, and will be eyeing an upset here. To add to that, Andreescu hasn't played a match on clay in quite some time. All these factors could well lead to the Canadian being one of the first casualties of this year's draw.
The winner of that section could set up a third-round meeting against Petra Kvitova, who will be eyeing a third straight quarterfinal on clay.
Two Grand Slam champions - Angelique Kerber and Jelena Ostapenko - stand in Simona Halep's path to the last eight. The defending champion has had a few underwhelming results in the lead-up to the tournament, but she has a game tailor-made for the courts here. A couple of good wins early would give her some much-needed momentum.
Prediction: Simona Halep def. Petra Kvitova
4th quarter: Serena Williams and Naomi Osaka on a collision course
Top seeded players: [2] Naomi Osaka, [8] Serena Williams, [10] Belinda Bencic, [13] Jennifer Brady
Expected quarterfinal: Naomi Osaka vs Serena Williams
Dark horse: Daria Kasatkina
Serena Williams finds herself in a competitive section on her return to the tour. The three-time former champion will likely open against Nadia Podoroska, who plays a qualifier in the first round.
Podoroska is a strong counterpuncher and enjoys playing on clay; she could well ask a few questions of Williams. The likes of Belinda Bencic and Shelby Rogers also loom ahead, but if she can find her stride early, Williams should be able to come through here.
Jennifer Brady, Jessica Pegula, Ekaterina Alexandrova and Daria Kasatkina will look to topple Naomi Osaka in the last section. That said, barring Kasatkina, none of the other women play their best tennis on the red dirt.
Osaka could face a couple of tough matchups here, given her own aversion to clay, but should have enough firepower to come through in the end.
Prediction: Naomi Osaka def. Serena Williams
Semifinal predictions
Ashleigh Barty def. Iga Swiatek
Simona Halep def. Naomi Osaka
Prediction for the final
Simona Halep def. Ashleigh Barty
Notable first-round matchups
Elise Mertens vs Veronika Kudermetova
Karolina Pliskova vs Venus Williams
Garbine Muguruza vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Anastasija Sevastova vs Jil Teichmann