Italian Open 2022: Men's singles draw analysis, preview & prediction
The 2022 Madrid Open champion is yet to be crowned, but the focus is slowly shifting to the Italian Open next week.
Rafael Nadal, the defending champion, will return to Rome aiming to win a record-extending 11th title. World No. 1 Novak Djokovic has also found considerable success at the venue, with five titles and six runner-up finishes.
Top 10 players Daniil Medvedev and Matteo Berrettini, along with World No. 13 Taylor Fritz, are the biggest names skipping the tournament. World No. 3 Alexander Zverev, Nadal and 2022 Monte-Carlo Masters champion Stefanos Tsitsipas round out the top four seeds.
Teen phenom Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to continue his fine run of form at the Italian Open. The youngster has hardly missed a beat this year as he continues to distinguish himself from the rest of the pack.
Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime have also been playing well and the duo will be eager to snatch a big title for themselves.
Casper Ruud, who has had some great results on clay in the past, has struggled over the last couple of weeks. The Norwegian will be aiming to find his footing ahead of Roland Garros. Jannik Sinner and Hubert Hurkacz are other players to watch out for.
On that note, let's take a look at how the draw could unfold over the next few days.
First Quarter: Novak Djokovic aiming for a sixth title at the Italian Open
Seeded players: (1) Novak Djokovic, (8) Felix Auger-Aliassime, (12) Diego Schwartzman and (14) Reilly Opelka
Expected quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Dark horse: Miomir Kecmanovic
Analysis: Novak Djokovic returns to one of his favorite hunting grounds. He has never lost prior to the quarterfinals at the Italian Open and has amassed a 59-10 record at the event.
The World No. 1 started off his clay season with a tough three-set loss to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the second round of the Monte-Carlo Masters. Djokovic, while still far from his best, managed to reach the final of the Serbia Open the following week. He needed three sets to get past all of his opponents and lost to Andrey Rublev in the final. He's currently in the semifinals of the Madrid Open and will take on Carlos Alcaraz.
Djokovic, along with the other top eight seeds, received a bye into the second round in Rome. He'll start against either Aslan Karatsev or Lloyd Harris. Both players have struggled this year and shouldn't pose a threat to the Serb.
A potential third-round contest with either Reilly Opelka or Stan Wawrinka awaits. Given his form, the Serb shouldn't have a problem winning against either of them to reach the quarterfinals.
Felix Auger-Aliassime, meanwhile, went through a rough patch for a while, but seems to have found his form once again. He could face Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the second round in Rome, followed by a third-round match against either Diego Schwartzman or Miomir Kecmanovic.
Schwartzman also enjoyed a great clay season until the Madrid Open, where he lost in the second round.
Predicted quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic def. Diego Schwartzman
Second Quarter: Rafael Nadal looking to gather some momentum ahead of Roland Garros
Seeded players: (3) Rafael Nadal, (5) Casper Ruud, (11) Hubert Hurkacz and (13) Denis Shapovalov
Expected quarterfinal: Rafael Nadal vs Casper Ruud
Dark horse: Sebastian Korda
Analysis: Defending champion Rafael Nadal arrived in Rome with much less game time under his belt than usual. He returned to action at the Madrid Open after an injury layoff and made it to the quarterfinals, where he lost to 19-year-old Carlos Alcaraz.
Nadal will start his quest for a record-breaking 11th Italian Open title against either John Isner or a qualifier. A win could see him take on either Denis Shapovalov or Dan Evans in the third round.
Casper Ruud has established himself as one of the leading claycourters of his generation, but has struggled for form over the last few weeks. He did win a title on clay at the Argentina Open in February, but hasn't replicated that form in Europe.
The Norwegian lost in the third round of the Monte-Carlo Masters. Ruud then made it to the quarterfinals in Barcelona and Munich, but lost to Pablo Carreno Busta and Botic van de Zandschulp respectively. He then failed to win a match in Madrid, losing to Dusan Lajovic in three sets in the second round.
At the Italian Open, he could face van de Zandschulp in a rematch from Munich, or Sebastian Korda in the second round.
A win would see Ruud take on either Hubert Hurkacz or David Goffin in the third round. Goffin won the title at Marrakech to start the clay season and held match points against Nadal in Madrid as well, with the Belgian finding his form after months of injury and poor results.
Hurkacz has reached consecutive quarterfinals in Monte-Carlo and Madrid and could present a challenge as well.
Predicted quarterfinal: Rafael Nadal def. Hubert Hurkacz
Djokovic vs Auger-Aliassime 
Nadal vs Ruud 
2022 Rome projected quarter-finals (by seeding):
🇷🇸 Djokovic vs Auger-Aliassime 🇨🇦
🇪🇸 Nadal vs Ruud 🇳🇴
Rublev vs Tsitsipas 🇬🇷
🇪🇸 Alcaraz vs Zverev 🇩🇪
#IBI22
Third Quarter: Stefanos Tsitsipas looks to continue his fine run of form on clay
Seeded players: (4) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (6) Andrey Rublev, (10) Jannik Sinner and (15) Pablo Carreno Busta
Expected quarterfinal: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev
Dark horse: Fabio Fognini
Analysis: Stefanos Tsitsipas commenced his clay season on a winning note by successfully defending his Monte-Carlo Masters title. He then lost to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals of the Barcelona Open. The Greek is currently in the semifinals of the Madrid Open, where he's up against World No. 3 Alexander Zverev.
Tsitsipas is likely to commence his Italian Open campaign against Grigor Dimitrov. He has already defeated the Bulgarian twice on clay this season. He could then face either Pablo Carreno Busta or Karen Khachanov in the third round. Given his form, he shouldn't have much trouble dispatching either of them to reach the last eight.
Andrey Rublev is also in this quarter. He won the Serbia Open and made it to the last eight in Madrid. He'll start against either Frances Tiafoe or Filip Krajinovic in the second round. He could meet Jannik Sinner in the third round. The Italian defeated the Russian in the third round of the Monte-Carlo Masters a few weeks ago.
Sinner will face Pedro Martinez in the first round, with a likely second-round contest against compatriot Fabio Fognini.
Predicted quarterfinal: Stefanos Tsitsipas def. Jannik Sinner
Ciao, Roma 🇮🇹
Which match-ups catch your eye?
#IBI22 https://t.co/J351cT3Sdg
Fourth Quarter: Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz headed for a quarterfinal showdown
Seeded players: (2) Alexander Zverev, (7) Carlos Alcaraz, (9) Cameron Norrie and (16) Roberto Bautista Agut
Expected quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev vs Carlos Alcaraz
Dark horse: Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Analysis: Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz are the top two seeds in this quarter, and both have a relatively easy path to the quarterfinals.
The German started his clay season by reaching the semifinals in Monte-Carlo. He suffered an early loss the following week at the BMW Open in Munich, losing to eventual champion and wildcard Holger Rune. His title defense at the Madrid Open has gone quite well so far, reaching the semifinals where he's up against Tsitsipas.
At the Italian Open, Zverev'll start against a qualifier, followed by a third-round match against either Albert Ramos-Vinolas or Roberto Bautista Agut.
Alcaraz has been on a roll this year, having won three titles so far, with two of them coming on clay. His only disappointing result was at the Monte-Carlo Masters, where he fell to Sebastian Korda in his opener. At the Madrid Open, the teenager defeated his idol Nadal in the quarterfinals in three sets. The Spaniard will lock horns with Djokovic on Saturday evening to for a spot in the final.
Alcaraz will be making his debut at the Italian Open this year. He'll start against either Cristian Garin or Francesco Passaro in the second round. Garin used to be quite a threat on clay, but has underperformed so far this year. Alcaraz is likely to face Cameron Norrie in the third round. He has already defeated the Brit twice this year, including a third-round win in Madrid this week.
Alcaraz could then meet Zverev in the quarterfinals.
Quarterfinal prediction: Carlos Alcaraz def. Alexander Zverev
Prediction for semifinals
Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal
Carlos Alcaraz def. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Prediction for the final: Novak Djokovic def. Carlos Alcaraz