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Italian Open 2024: Daniil Medvedev vs Jack Draper preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (2) Daniil Medvedev vs Jack Draper

Date: May 11, 2024

Tournament: Italian Open 2024

Round: Second Round (Round of 64)

Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Clay

Prize money: £7,877,020

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN+


Daniil Medvedev vs Jack Draper preview

Medvedev at the 2024 Madrid Open.
Medvedev at the 2024 Madrid Open.

Daniil Medvedev will begin his title defense against Jack Draper in the second round of the 2024 Italian Open on Saturday, May 11.

Medvedev's clay swing commenced at the Monte-Carlo Masters, though his time there was rather brief. He was eliminated in the third round by fellow Russian Karen Khachanov.

Medvedev's next tournament was the Madrid Open, where he secured three-set wins over Matteo Arnaldi and Sebastian Korda to make the fourth round. He downed Alexander Bublik to reach the quarterfinals, and with it, he finally made the last eight at all Masters 1000 tournaments.

Unfortunately, Medvedev's run ended with a mid-match retirement against Jiri Lehecka. As a seeded player at the Italian Open, he received a bye into the second round.

Draper's debut campaign in Rome got underway against Borna Coric. The Brit missed quite a few break-point chances early on in the first set. He finally converted one when his opponent served to stay in the set at 6-5, thus claiming the set.

Draper ran away with the match after that as he conceded only one game in the second set to score a 7-5, 6-1 win. It marked his fourth victory on clay this season.


Daniil Medvedev vs Jack Draper head-to-head

This will be the first meeting between them, so the head-to-head stands at 0-0 for now.


Daniil Medvedev vs Jack Draper odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Daniil Medvedev-150
+1.5 (-350)
Over 21.5 (-155)
Jack Draper
+115
-1.5 (+240)
Under 21.5 (+110)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Daniil Medvedev vs Jack Draper prediction

Jack Draper at the 2024 Madrid Open.
Jack Draper at the 2024 Madrid Open.

Draper shined in his debut at the Italian Open as he outplayed Coric to come out on top. He didn't face a single break point and won 92 percent of his first serve points. The Brit smacked 22 winners in contrast to 12 unforced errors.

Medvedev overcame his struggles on clay to capture his first title on the surface in Rome last year. His odds of a repeat hinge on how well he has recovered from the injury he sustained in Madrid. However, the Russian has yet to defend a title in his career, so even if he's fully fit, one can't say if he'll go all the way here once again.

Draper is a talented young player, though his own career has been plagued with injuries. His 2-10 record against top-10 opposition doesn't bode well for his chances against Medvedev.

Draper has lost his last seven matches against top-10 players, including a couple on clay this year. If Medvedev has recovered, then he should be able to survive the Brit's best efforts to advance further.

Pick: Daniil Medvedev to win in three sets.

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