Italian Open 2024 final: Alexander Zverev vs Nicolas Jarry preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (3) Alexander Zverev vs (21) Nicolas Jarry
Date: May 19, 2024
Tournament: Italian Open 2024
Round: Final
Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Surface: Clay
Prize money: £7,877,020
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN2
Alexander Zverev vs Nicolas Jarry preview
World No. 5 Alexander Zverev will take on Nicolas Jarry in the final of the 2024 Italian Open on Sunday, May 19.
Zverev secured straight-set victories over Aleksandar Vukic, Luciano Darderi, Nuno Borges, and Taylor Fritz to reach the semifinals. He was up against 29th seed Alejandro Tabilo for a spot in the championship round.
After not dropping a set the entire tournament, Zverev got outplayed by Tabilo and lost the opening set rather tamely. The German raised his level in the second set and edged out his opponent in the tie-break to claim the set.
Zverev raced to a 5-1 lead in the decider and closed out the match soon after that for a 1-6, 7-6 (4), 6-2 comeback win. He has reached his third final in Rome, having won the title in 2017 and finishing as the runner-up in 2018.
Jarry knocked out Matteo Arnaldi, Stefano Napolitano, Alexandre Muller, and Stefanos Tsitsipas to make the last four, where Tommy Paul awaited him. The Chilean broke the impasse in the first set as he bagged the last three games to capture the opener.
Jarry was on the cusp of victory as he led 4-2 in the second set but Paul had other ideas. The American fought back to level the score and came out on top in the ensuing tie-break to level the proceedings.
A single break of serve gave Jarry the upper hand in the third set. He served for the match at 5-3 but Paul didn't go down without a fight. The Chilean saved a couple of break points and needed five match points to wrap up a 6-3, 6-7 (3), 6-3 win. He has now reached the biggest final of his career.
Alexander Zverev vs Nicolas Jarry head-to-head
Zverev leads Jarry 4-2 in the head-to-head. The German won their previous encounter at the 2023 China Open in three sets.
Alexander Zverev vs Nicolas Jarry odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Alexander Zverev vs Nicolas Jarry prediction
Zverev and Jarry matched their illustrious compatriots by reaching the Italian Open final. The former tied Boris Becker's record by reaching his 11th Masters 1000 final, while the latter became the first player to reach a final at this level since Fernando Gonzalez in 2007.
Zverev leads Jarry in the overall head-to-head but the two are dead even on clay, with both of them winning a couple of matches apiece. The Chilean won their most recent encounter on clay at last year's Geneva Open.
Jarry will need to have an outstanding day on serve to have a shot at victory. His heavy forehand could put Zverev in a spot of bother, as he has done so in the past. The German, on the other hand, is capable of switching between defensive and offensive tactics based on the situation.
Jarry felt the pressure while closing out his semifinal match, and he could feel the nerves once again in his maiden Masters final. Zverev has been at this stage before and his experience could help him lift his second trophy in Rome.
Pick: Alexander Zverev to win in three sets.