Italian Open 2025 Final: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz preview, head-to-head, prediction and pick
Match Details
Fixture: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz
Date: May 18, 2024
Tournament: Italian Open 2025
Round: Final
Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
Category: ATP 1000
Surface: Outdoor clay
Prize money: €8,055,385
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz preview
Fans at the 2025 Italian Open will get what they wished for: a final between fast-emerging rivals Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. The mouthwatering match-up comes in the former’s first tournament back from the doping suspension.
Sinner, the top seed at this year’s tournament, has shown very little rust despite having been away from competition for a long period. His 1-6, 6-0, 6-3 win over Tommy Paul in the semifinal, in fact, was his first this tournament where he dropped a set. He had earlier dismissed the likes of Casper Ruud, Francisco Cernudolo and a couple of others with ease.
The run here means that the Italian has now gone 12-0 this year, having also won the Australian Open in his only other appearance.
Alcaraz, meanwhile, has also done well to bounce back from the finals loss in Barcelona and the injury withdrawal at his home event in Madrid. His matches have been more keenly contested, but even he has dropped only one set so far (against Karen Khachanov in the fourth round) and looked good in his straight-sets wins over Lorenzo Musetti and Jack Draper in the semifinal and quarterfinal, respectively.
The Spaniard has put together an incredible clay season, reaching the finals in all three tournaments that he has played. He will now be looking to improve his 29-5 win-loss and take home a second trophy (after Monte-Carlo) on the red dirt this season.
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz head-to-head
Alcaraz leads Sinner in their current head-to-head with a 6-4 margin. He won all three of their tour encounters that took place last year.
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz odds
(Odds will be updated when available)
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction
On paper, Carlos Alcaraz would come across as the favorite come into this contest given his recent form and affinity for the red dirt. He will, however, need to be wary of his opponent.
Jannik Sinner started off the tournament playing some steely tennis. He was not at his best, dropping serves more often than usual, wasting far too many breakpoints but was still actively problem solving on the court.
Then came the match against Casper Ruud, where everything fell into place for the Italian. He was at his ruthless best from the line, serving big and finding all the right spots on the court through his groundstrokes. The 60% first serve points won stat was also suddenly up to 80% and it stayed in that range against Tommy Paul too.
Coming into the final, Sinner will look to be the aggressor. His opponent, as powerful on the forehand as he is, also values variety. He can mix the spin, play dropshots and much more. That, however, also makes him sligtly prone to going through phases where the shot selection is just off (as seen in his matches against Khachanov and Musetti).
To his credit though, Alcaraz continues to win more matches playing the way he does. Against Sinner too, he will rely on his physicality and variety more than brut force to gain some edge.
All said and done, Sinner seems to be out on mission to prove naysayers wrong in his first tournament back from the suspension. And in many ways, there could not have been a better tournament for him to return. The wave of home support has fueled the hunger and if he can continue to play like he did his last couple of matches, he might just have enough firepower to hit past Alcaraz in the final.
Prediction: Sinner to win in three sets