Italian Open 2025: Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens preview, head-to-head, prediction, and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (3) Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens
Date: May 10, 2025
Tournament: Italian Open 2025
Round: Third Round
Venue: Foro Italico, Rome, Italy
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Outdoor clay
Prize money: $6,831,315
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens preview
World No. 4 Jessica Pegula will take on Elise Mertens in the third round of the Italian Open.
Pegula is a force to be reckoned with on the main tour. After a runner-up finish in Adelaide, she captured her first title of the season in Austin and added another to her locker in Charleston. The American also reached the finals in Miami, but Aryna Sabalenka denied her the win.
Pegula entered Rome after a third-round exit in Madrid at the hands of unseeded Moyuka Uchijima. She made amends for her early loss with a confident start against Ashlyn Krueger. Pegula defeated her compatriot in straight sets in the second round, 6-4, 6-2.
Meanwhile, Elise Mertens has made an optimistic start to the season. She has chalked up 20 wins from 29 matches, including a runner-up finish in Hobart and a title-winning run in Singapore. She also reached the quarterfinals of the Stuttgart Open, but lost to Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets.
The Belgian entered Rome after a third-round exit in Madrid. She started her campaign with a hard-fought win over Suzan Lamens in the first round, 3-6, 6-2, 6-3. Mertens won 73 percent of her first serve points and saved eight out of 11 break points to earn the win.
Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens head-to-head
Mertens leads the head-to-head against Pegula 3-1. However, Pegula won their most recent encounter in the 2025 Australian Open.
Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens odds
Odds will be updated when available.
Jessica Pegula vs Elise Mertens prediction
Jessica Pegula is a former quarterfinalist in the French Open (2022). She captured her first title on clay this year and will be looking forward to testing her potential in Paris. The American likes to play a no-nonsense brand of tennis and has sharpened her all-around game over the years.
On the other hand, Mertens silenced her critics at the start of the season with a title. The Belgian has reached the fourth round in Paris three times in the past and will have a psychological advantage against Pegula due to their head-to-head record. She also outfoxed the American in Paris a couple of years ago.
Considering their recent form and results this year, the American will be a slight favorite to enter this bout. If she finds a way to settle in quickly and execute her offensive style of play, she shouldn't have too many problems dealing with Mertens in the third round.
Pick: Pegula to win in straight sets.