Japan Open 2024 Final: Ugo Humbert vs Arthur Fils preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match Details
Fixture: Ugo Humbert vs Arthur Fils
Date: September 30, 2024
Tournament: Japan Open 2024
Match Timing: 6 pm local time, 6 am EDT, 3:30 pm IST
Round: Final
Venue: Ariake Coliseum, Tokyo, Japan
Category: ATP 500
Surface: Hard (Outdoor)
Prize Money : $1,818,380
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - DAZN
Ugo Humbert vs Arthur Fils preview
Ugo Humbert will take on Arthur Fils in the Japan Open final on Tuesday, October 1. Victory for the former will see him win his third title of 2024 while Fils will clinch his second title of the season if he comes out on top.
Humbert entered the ATP 500 event in Tokyo at the back of a disappointing campaign for France at the Davis Cup Finals, where they were eliminated after the group stage. The 26-year-old booked his place in the semifinals of the tournament with straight set wins over Shintaro Mochizuki and Brandon Nakashima, and after his quarterfinals opponent Jack Draper retired due to an abdominal issue.
Here, Humbert faced Tomas Machac and took the lead by taking the first set 6-3. However, the Czech fought back and won the second set by the same scoreline to force the match into a tiebreaker. Humbert broke Machac twice in the third set and won it 6-2 to reach his third final of 2024.
Like his compatriot, Arthur Fils also last competed in the Davis Cup group stages, winning just one out of his three singles matches. The 20-year-old beat Jiri Lehecka while losing to Roberto Bautista Agut and Thanasi Kokkinakis.
Fils was unseeded at the Japan Open and started his campaign with a 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 win over top seed Taylor Fritz. The Frenchman then faced Matteo Berrettini and lost the opening set before the Italian was forced to withdraw due to an injury. He then edged out eighth seed Ben Shelton 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-6(2) to set up a semifinal clash against sixth seed Holger Rune.
Fils and Rune played out two tight sets and eventually won 7-6(8), 7-6(10) to reach his second final of 2024.
Ugo Humbert vs Arthur Fils head-to-head
The two Frenchmen have locked horns thrice previously, with Ugo Humbert winning each of those matches. Their last encounter came in the first round of the Canadian Open, with the 26-year-old winning 6-2, 6-2.
Humbert vs Arthur Fils odds
All odds sourced from BETMGM. (More odds to be added when available)
Humbert vs Arthur Fils prediction
Humbert has won all of his prior matches against Fils and is yet to lose a singles final in his career. Hence, he will have an edge entering the final. However, Fils should not be written off as he is among the most promising young talents in tennis and is capable of triumphing at the Ariake Coliseum on Tuesday.
Humbert has an effective serve that has fetched him 21 aces so far in Tokyo, and will be looking to serve more of those in the final. The 26-year-old has won 101 out of 130 points so far on his first serve throughout the tournament and has produced 112 winners compared to 101 unforced errors.
Humbert will look to be aggressive from the start and will look to make the most of his solid forehand and net prowess. The 26-year-old's on-court composure will also come in handy.
Arthur Fils' first-serve numbers at the Japan Open have been very impressive, as he has served 20 aces and has won 117 out 144 points (81.25%). The 20-year-old's service games are bound to be hard for Humbert to break. So, if his return game is effective enough, there is a good chance of him coming out on top.
Eventually, it could well come down to which player has better defenses throughout the final, apart from nerves. While Fils will be a very tough opponent to beat, Ugo Humbert has had an impressive record in finals so far and there is a fair chance of him just about edging out his compatriot to win the match and win his seventh ATP Tour title.