Japan Open 2024: Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (7) Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima
Date: Thursday, 26 September 2024
Tournament: 2024 Japan Open
Round: First Round (Round of 32)
Venue: Ariake Coliseum, Tokyo, Japan
Category: ATP 500
Surface: Hard (Outdoor)
Prize Money: $1,818,380
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - DAZN
Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima preview
Seventh seed Frances Tiafoe will open his 2024 Japan Open campaign against an in-form Brandon Nakashima in an All-American first-round clash on Thursday, 26 September.
Tiafoe enters Tokyo with a 30-21 match record for the season. He had a rather quiet first half of the year, reaching the finals in Houston, but failed to make deep runs at the bigger events. He displayed flashes of his former self during the grass court season, reaching the quarterfinals in Stuttgart and the third round at Wimbledon, where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz in a five-set epic.
Tiafoe dramatically turned his season around during the North American hardcourt swing, reaching the finals in Cincinnati, where he lost to Jannik Sinner. He also made it to his second US Open semifinal, falling to compatriot Taylor Fritz.
At the Laver Cup last week, Tiafoe defeated Daniil Medvedev on Day 2 but lost to Alexander Zverev on Day 3 in the singles competition. He also lost his doubles encounter alongside Ben Shelton against the duo of Alcaraz and Casper Ruud.
Nakashima continues to impress in his breakthrough season on the ATP Tour, as his 27-16 match record indicates. His run to the Stuttgart semifinals remains his best result so far this year.
Like Tiafoe, Nakashima has been playing some of his best tennis since the start of the North American hardcourt swing, compiling an impressive 8-4 match record and reaching the fourth round at the US Open, his deepest run at the New York major.
He enters Tokyo after an impressive week in Chengdu, where he defeated the likes of Coleman Wong and Rinky Hijikata to seal a berth in just his second semifinal of the season. Up against former World No. 3 Marin Cilic, he went down in straight sets.
Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima head-to-head
Frances Tiafoe leads Brandon Nakashima 4-0 in their head-to-head matchups, having won their previous encounter 6-4, 6-2 in Atlanta two years ago. Tiafoe has also won their only meeting on the Challenger Tour, which took place in Dallas in 2020. All five of their matches have been contested on hard courts.
Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima odds
(Odds sourced from BetMGM)
Frances Tiafoe vs Brandon Nakashima prediction
Fans in Tokyo can expect a thrilling matchup between the two Americans, both of whom are in scintillating form lately.
Tiafoe has been a dominant force on hard courts in the second half of the season and looks eager to finish 2024 on a high note. While he has enjoyed significant success recently, he has also missed opportunities that could have led to even greater achievements in New York and at the Laver Cup in Berlin.
On the other hand, Brandon Nakashima continues to impress with his powerful all-court game and remarkable maturity. He has been improving as the season progresses, and one can only imagine how much further he can go by the end of the year.
The slower hard courts in Tokyo might benefit Tiafoe, given his stronger defensive game. Serving well will be crucial, as will attacking the net and keeping points short.
Nakashima could challenge his compatriot if he serves effectively and takes control on the return early in the match, though that seems unlikely given their previous head-to-heads and Tiafoe's current form.
Pick: Tiafoe in straight sets.