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Japan Open 2024: Tommy Paul vs Matteo Arnaldi preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (5) Tommy Paul vs Matteo Arnaldi

Date: 26 September 2024

Tournament: Japan Open 2024

Round: First Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Ariake Coliseum, Tokyo, Japan

Category: ATP 500

Surface: Hard

Prize Money: $1,818,380

Live Telecast: USA - ESPN | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN


Tommy Paul vs Matteo Arnaldi preview

Tommy Paul playing a shot in the US Open - Source: Getty
Tommy Paul playing a shot in the US Open - Source: Getty

Fifth seed Tommy Paul will take on Matteo Arnaldi in the first round of the Japan Open on Thursday.

Paul has had a propitious season, so far, garnering 38 wins from 53 matches, including title-winning runs in the Dallas Open and the Queens Club Championships. He also reached the finals of the Delray Beach Open, but couldn't edge past Taylor Fritz in a gripping encounter.

The American will enter Tokyo on the back of a fourth-round exit in New York. He outfoxed the likes of Gabriel Diallo and Max Purcell en route to the last 16 but came up shy against Jannik Sinner. The Italian top seed defeated Paul in three sets, 7-6(3), 7-6(5), 6-1.

Arnaldi in action at the Davis Cup Finals - Italy v Brazil - Source: Getty
Arnaldi in action at the Davis Cup Finals - Italy v Brazil - Source: Getty

Matteo Arnaldi, meanwhile, has had a decent season so far by chalking up 27 wins from 58 matches, including a semifinal run in the Canada Open. He also reached the quarterfinals of the Brisbane International and Barcelona Open, where he lost to Casper Ruud in straight sets.

The 23-year-old will enter Tokyo on the back of a third round exit in New York. He cruised past Zachary Svajda and Roman Safiullin en route to the third round, but couldn't ruffle the feathers of Jordan Thompson. The Australian defeated Arnaldi in three-sets, 7-5, 6-2, 7-6(5).

Tommy Paul vs Matteo Arnaldi head-to-head

The head-to-head between Paul and Arnaldi is locked at 0-0.

Tommy Paul vs Matteo Arnaldi odds

Player Name Moneyline Handicap Bets Total Games 
Tommy Paul 
Matteo Arnaldi 

Odds will be updated when available.

Tommy Paul vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction

Paul weighs up a forehand in the National Bank Open - Source: Getty
Paul weighs up a forehand in the National Bank Open - Source: Getty

Tommy Paul has won two titles this year, but would've wished to achieve more success in Majors. He came close to reaching the semifinals in Wimbledon, but couldn't get past defending champion Carlos Alcaraz. The American opted to miss the Laver Cup this year and will be fresh to compete in the Japan Open.

Arnaldi, on the other hand, has defeated higher-ranked opponents such as Taylor Fritz, Karen Khachanov and Ugo Humbert this year. He also stretched Stefanos Tsitsipas to four sets in Paris and almost humbled Frances Tiafoe in Wimbledon. The Italian is known for his solid all-around game and exceptional movement on court.

Considering their results at the highest level and recent form on tour, Paul will be the favorite to come out on top. The American reached the quarterfinals last year and will be hoping to improve this time around. He should be able to stamp his authority against Arnaldi and begin on the right note in Tokyo.

Pick: Paul to win in three sets.

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