Madrid Open 2021: Daniil Medvedev vs Cristian Garin preview, head-to-head & prediction
Match details
Fixture: (2) Daniil Medvedev vs (16) Cristian Garin
Date: 6 May 2021
Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open 2021
Round: Third round (Round of 16)
Venue: Madrid, Spain
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Surface: Red clay
Prize money: €2,614,465
Match timing: Approx. 1 pm local time, 4.30 pm IST
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video
Daniil Medvedev vs Cristian Garin preview
Daniil Medvedev produced plenty of drama against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the second round of the 2021 Mutua Madrid Open on Wednesday, but ended up winning 4-6, 6-4, 6-2. Medvedev will next face Cristian Garin in the Round of 16; the Chilean beat Dominik Koepfer 6-3, 6-4 in his second-round match.
Playing his first post-COVID singles match, Medvedev initially struggled to find his footing on his least-favorite surface. The Russian was on a six-match losing spree on clay, dating back to his loss against Dominic Thiem at the 2019 Barcelona Open.
Medvedev still got an early break in the opening set, but failed to capitalize on it. The World No. 3 soon descended into a rant against clay, hilariously calling it a "damaged" surface at the end of the first set.
While Medvedev's tennis wasn't the most aesthetic, his antics and strange decision-making kept fans entertained throughout. And while the Russian struggled to find the shape on his groundstrokes, he hung in with Davidovich Fokina before decisively breaking the Spaniard at 3-3 in the second set.
The deciding set then saw one-way traffic in favor of Medvedev, as he raced to a 5-1 lead before closing out the victory with an ace.
Medvedev struck 19 winners to Davidovich Fokina's 20. In the unforced errors department, however, the Russian fared better as he coughed up 30 compared to Davidovich Fokina's 36.
Cristian Garin, meanwhile, registered his second consecutive straight-sets win in Madrid on Wednesday. After comfortably defeating Fernando Verdasco in the first round, the Chilean made short work of Dominik Koepfer in the second.
Garin has lost his serve just twice so far, and seems to have regained his claycourt form after suffering early exits in Barcelona and Estoril.
Daniil Medvedev vs Cristian Garin head-to-head
Daniil Medvedev leads Cristian Garin in the head-to-head by a margin of 1-0. Medvedev's win over Garin came at the 2019 Rogers Cup, so this will be their first meeting on clay.
Daniil Medvedev vs Cristian Garin prediction
While Daniil Medvedev is the superior player across surfaces, Cristian Garin is arguably a better claycourter. That said, Garin hasn't been in the best of form on clay in 2021, having suffered surprising losses to Cameron Norrie and Sumit Nagal.
On the other hand, while a lot has been said about Medvedev's serve not getting enough purchase on clay, it did quite a bit of damage against Davidovich Fokina. The Russian won more 70% of his first-serve points and a more than respectable 58% on the second.
It is pertinent to note, however, that while Garin usually does well on clay, he does even better in high-altitude conditions like in Madrid. Three of the Chilean's claycourt titles have come in events played at a high altitude (2021 Chile Open, 2020 Cordoba Open and 2019 BMW Open).
Garin's already heavy groundstrokes move quicker in the air at high altitudes, making it a lethal combination to deal with. As such, he is the favorite to emerge victorious over Medvedev, who often looked at sea against the bounce generated by Davidovich Fokina.
Prediction: Cristian Garin to win in three sets.