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Madrid Open 2024: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jan-Lennard Struff preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (2) Carlos Alcaraz vs (23) Jan-Lennard Struff

Date: Tuesday, April 30

Time: TBD

Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open

Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)

Venue: La Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain

Category: ATP 1000

Surface: Clay (Outdoor)

Prize Money: $7,877,020

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN+

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jan-Lennard Struff preview

Alcaraz at the 2024 Mutua Madrid Open
Alcaraz at the 2024 Mutua Madrid Open

Second seed Carlos Alcaraz will take on Jan-Lennard Struff in the fourth round of the 2024 Mutua Madrid Open on Tuesday, April 30, in a rematch of last year's final.

Alcaraz missed the Monte Carlo Masters and the Barcelona Open due to a right arm injury, but put away all concerns to rest with a clinical victory against Ukrainian youngster Alexander Shevchenko to begin his title defense in Madrid. He dropped just 3 games en route to a 6-1, 6-2 beatdown in just an hour and eight minutes.

He carried that good form into round three, seeing off Brazilian Thiago Seyboth Wild with a 6-3, 6-3 scoreline. He won 87% points behind his first serve and broke his opponent's serve four times in the six opportunities presented.

Struff, meanwhile, entered the event on the back of his first-ever title on the ATP tour at the Bavarian International where he beat American Taylor Fritz in the summit clash.

He opened his campaign in the Spanish capital with a solid 6-1, 7-5 win over local Jaume Munar. Up against 13th seed Ugo Humbert in the third round, Struff plowed through a tough opening set to eventually seal a 7-5, 6-4 win. Struff was impeccable on serve, winning 76% points behind his first serve and 88% points behind his second serve.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jan-Lennard Struff head-to-head

Carlos Alcaraz and Jan-Lennard Struff have met thrice on tour, with the Spaniard edging their head-to-head 2-1 currently. They played their match in the finals of last year's Madrid Open, with Alcaraz sealing a 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 win.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jan-Lennard Struff odds

Player MoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games (Over & Under) 
Carlos Alcaraz -550-1.5 (-165)Over 21.5 (-130)
Jan-Lennard Struff+375+1.5 (+120)Under 21.5 (-110)

All odds sourced from BETMGM.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jan-Lennard Struff prediction

BMW Open - Day 9
BMW Open - Day 9

Alcaraz heads into his encounter with Struff as the favorite, but there is no discounting a surprise from the hard-hitting German.

Both players have been in good form recently. Alcaraz had dropped a mere nine in both his matches combined and has looked scintillating on serve and both wings. The Spaniard might have missed out on the action in the last couple of weeks, but he's looking as fresh as ever and a scary prospect for anybody about to face him.

Struff was in top form last week in Munich and seems to have carried that form into Madrid. He wasted little time during his first match and displayed great finishing skills during his second round to rack up a couple of fine wins.

In what is a rematch of last year's final at the event, fans can expect fireworks with both players bringing in a high-intensity game. While Alcaraz is most likely expected to go through, Struff is in with a big chance should he serve well and make early inroads on the Alcaraz serve.

It could just ultimately boil down to who plays the crucial points more clinically, something Alcaraz has proved his brilliance in during his short career.

Pick: Carlos Alcaraz in three sets.

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