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Madrid Open 2024: Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur preview, head-to-head, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: Rafael Nadal vs (10) Alex de Minaur

Date: April 27, 2024

Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open

Round: Second round

Venue: Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Clay

Prize Money: €7,697,965

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel/TC Plus | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN


Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur preview

Nadal at the Mutua Madrid Open - Day Three
Nadal at the Mutua Madrid Open - Day Three

Former World No. 1 Rafael Nadal will square off against Alex de Minaur in the second round of the 2024 Madrid Open.

After a 12-month injury break on the sidelines, Nadal returned to the men's tour at the Brisbane International. He defeated the likes of Dominic Thiem and Jason Kubler en route to the quarterfinals, but couldn't make his mark against Jordan Thompson as the Australian outlasted him 5-7, 7-6(7), 6-3.

The Spaniard entered Madrid on the back of a second-round exit in the Barcelona Open. He began his campaign by cruising past Darwin Blanch in the first round, 6-1, 6-0.

Alex de Minaur at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters - Day Six
Alex de Minaur at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters - Day Six

Alex de Minaur, meanwhile, has made a propitious start to the season by chalking up 23 wins from 31 matches, including a title-winning run in the Mexican Open and a runner-up finish in the Rotterdam Open. He also reached the quarterfinals in Monte-Carlo, where he lost to Novak Djokovic in straight sets.

The Australian will enter Madrid on the back of a third-round exit in the Barcelona Open. He began his campaign with a solid win against Rafael Nadal but fell to Arthur Fils in the last 16. The Frenchman defeated De Minaur in straight sets, 7-5, 6-2.


Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur head-to-head

Nadal leads the head-to-head against Alex de Minaur 3-2. The Australian won their most recent encounter in the 2024 Barcelona Open.


Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur odds

Player NameMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games 
Rafael Nadal +185
Alex de Minaur -140

All odds sourced by BETMGM (Remaining odds will be updated once available)


Rafael Nadal vs Alex de Minaur prediction

Nadal at the Mutua Madrid Open - Day Three
Nadal at the Mutua Madrid Open - Day Three

A thrilling encounter is on the cards between Rafael Nadal and Alex de Minaur in the second round of the Madrid Open. The duo will lock horns with each other for the second time this month on clay.

Considering his frequent knack of picking up an injury, Nadal has been cautious about his schedule this year. He will be hoping to raise his level with considerable game time under his belt. The Spaniard has an outrageous record on clay and possesses all the shots in the book to complement his game.

De Minaur, on the contrary, has evolved into a serious competitor on tour. His results this season showcase his potential to perform consistently at a high level. The 25-year-old will only improve further in the next couple of years. He is known for his counter-punching ability from the baseline and effortless movement on the court.

Ultimately, the player who begins well and wins the tactical battle in the opening hour will have the upper hand in this bout. Nadal faced a stern challenge from the Australian in Barcelona but should be able to raise his level this time around. If the Spaniard moves well on the court and finds his range from the word go, he could cause problems for De Minaur's run in Madrid.

Pick: Nadal to win in straight sets.

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