Madrid Open 2025: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (6) Alex de Minaur vs (29) Denis Shapovalov
Date: April 28, 2025
Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open
Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
Venue: Park Manzanares, Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Prize Money: $8,619,262
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov preview
Sixth seed Alex de Minaur will take on former top 10 player Denis Shapovalov in the third round of the Madrid Open 2025.
Following a first-round bye, de Minaur was up against Lorenzo Sonego in the second round here. The Aussie dropped his serve in the very first game of the match. However, he recovered in almost no time, sweeping six of the next seven games to take the set.
An early break of serve in de Minaur's favor put him in control of the second set. He held a match point on Sonego's serve at 5-2 but failed to wrap up the proceedings. Nevertheless, he served out the match himself in the next game for a 6-2, 6-3 victory.
Shapovalov received a bye into the second round as well, where former US Open finalist Kei Nishikori awaited him. The opening set was a walk in the park for the Canadian, dropping only one game en route to claiming it. While the second set was more competitive, he still outplayed his older rival to snag the only break of serve in it to score a 6-1, 6-4 win.
Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov head-to-head
De Minaur leads Shapovalov 4-0 in the head-to-head. He won their previous encounter at the Stockholm Open 2022 in straight sets.
Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov prediction
Shapovalov hit a purple patch in February, beating three top 10 players en route to the title in Dallas. However, his form has taken a hit in recent weeks. His win over Nishikori in Madrid was his first of the clay season, snapping a three-match losing streak. He previously lost in the first round of the Monte-Carlo Masters and the BMW Open at the start of the clay swing.
De Minaur, on the other hand, has been consistent since the start of the season. He has thrived on clay so far, reaching the semifinals of the Monte-Carlo Masters and the quarterfinals of the Barcelona Open. Aside from a minor hiccup at the start of the match, he was never bothered by Sonego in the previous round.
With a perfect 4-0 record in this rivalry, de Minaur will be the favorite to extend his winning streak given his form. His defensive skills have foiled Shapovalov's aggressive shotmaking time and time again. The Aussie has also won their previous couple of matches in straight sets.
Furthermore, de Minaur wasn't even a top 10 player when they contested their previous four matches. Now that he has leveled up, Shapovalov could find it even more difficult to keep up with him.
Pick: Alex de Minaur to win in straight sets.