Madrid Open 2025: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (28) Elise Mertens
Date: April 27, 2025
Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open
Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
Venue: Park Manzanares, Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Category: WTA 1000
Prize Money: $8,403,780
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens preview
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will take on her former doubles partner Elise Mertens in the third round of the Madrid Open 2025.
After a first-round bye, Sabalenka commenced her quest for a third title in Madrid against Anna Blinkova. The top seed was off to a fast start and raced to a 5-0 lead in the first set within minutes. However, the Russian then went on a three-game run, even saving a set point and stopping her opponent from serving out the set.
Sabalenka stepped up to serve for the set once again at 5-3. She fended off three break points before she was able to get the job done. She secured an early break of serve in the second set to go 2-0 up. She kept Blinkova at bay for the rest of the set to score a 6-3, 6-4 win.
Mertens received a bye into the second round, where Camila Osorio awaited her. The Belgian dictated the proceedings in the first set, breaking her younger rival's serve twice to claim the opener.
Mertens rushed to a 5-1 lead in the second set and even held four match points on her own serve but failed to serve it out. Osorio then saved another couple of match points on her own serve to keep herself in contention. However, the Belgian finally got over the finish line after that, serving out the contest decisively for a 6-3, 6-3 victory.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens head-to-head
Sabalenka leads Mertens 9-2 in the head-to-head. She won their most recent encounter at last week's Porsche Tennis Grand Prix in Stuttgart in straight sets.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens prediction
After a minor stumble in the first set, Sabalenka took control of the reins and never looked back against Blinkova in the previous round. She won 75 percent of her first serve points and finished the match with more winners than unforced errors.
Mertens needed quite a few match points against Osorio as the latter kept staging an escape act. She will now face the herculean task of stopping the World No. 1 in the next round.
Sabalenka and Mertens are quite familiar with each other's games, having competed against each other 11 times and played side by side as well. The two won a couple of Major titles in doubles back in the day. The Belarusian has won their last eight matches and she won seven of those in straight sets.
They met last week in Stuttgart as well. Mertens put up a fight in the first set before Sabalenka steamrolled her in the next to win the match. The outcome is likely to be the same this time as well.
Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets.