Madrid Open 2025: Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns
Date: April 28, 2025
Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open 2025
Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)
Venue: Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Category: WTA 1000
Prize Money: $8,403,780
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns preview
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will look to reach the quarterfinals of the 2025 Madrid Open when she faces the USA's Peyton Stearns in the fourth round on Monday (April 28).
Sabalenka is eyeing a three-peat at Caja Magica this week after having previously triumphed at the 1000-level event in 2021 and 2023. The Belarusian began her campaign in Madrid this fortnight with a 6-3, 6-4 victory against Russia's Anna Blinkova in the second round.
She received stiff resistance from Belgian veteran Elise Mertens. After dropping the first set, the 26-year-old was forced to up her level against 28th-seeded Mertens, as she completed a 3-6, 6-2, 6-1 victory in just over two hours to reach the Round of 16. Her next opponent will be the dangerous Stearns, who has endured a much more difficult path at this year's Madrid Open.
The World No. 44 overcame Kimberly Birrell and Amanda Anisimova in back-to-back three-setters before trouncing Swiss qualifier Rebeka Masarova 6-2, 6-0 to record her career-best result in Madrid.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns head-to-head
Sabalenka leads Stearns 1-0 in their head-to-head meetings on the WTA Tour. The Belarusian staved off three match points to beat the American 6-7(2), 6-2, 7-6(6) in the third round of the 2024 BNP Paribas Open.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns odds
All bets sourced from BetMGM.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns prediction
Sabalenka struggled getting underneath the ball in Madrid last week as she committed uncharacteristic errors from the back of the court. The top seed still managed to put up respectable numbers on serve, winning 76% of her first-serve points in the final two sets of her three-set battle against Mertens in the third round.
Stearns, meanwhile, has taken well to the relatively faster conditions at the 1000-level event, which has enabled her to hit the spots on her flat forehand. That said, the 23-year-old's serve and return require some work and are likely to put pressure on her to deliver during long rallies with the World No. 1 in their fourth-round clash.
The keys to winning for both players will be to spread out the court with cross-court and inside-out forehands. Since Sabalenka is much more adept at this ploy, she will probably win this contest with little to no difficulty.
Pick: Sabalenka to win in straight sets.