Madrid Open 2025 Draw: Aryna Sabalenka's projected path to final ft. potential SF vs Jessica Pegula
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will make her seventh appearance in the Madrid Open this year. She is a two-time champion at the event, winning the title in 2021 and 2023.
Sabalenka will enter Madrid after a close runner-up finish in the Stuttgart Open. Despite a valiant effort against Jelena Ostapenko, the Latvian stunned her in straight sets 6-4, 6-1.
The Belarusian will be the top seed at the event this year. In Madrid, she will be joined by her near-rivals Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek, and Elena Rybakina.
Without further ado, let's take a look at Sabalenka's draw in the upcoming event.
Aryna Sabalenka's 3R opponent - Elise Mertens / Camila Osorio
Aryna Sabalenka will receive a first-round bye in the Madrid Open due to her ranking superiority. She will begin her campaign in the second round against an unknown qualifier.
The Belarusian is then most likely to take on Elise Mertens or Camila Osorio in the third round. She dominates the head-to-head battle against both opponents, leading Mertens 9-2 and Osorio 2-0.
Sabalenka has not lost to Mertens in the last six years on tour. She recently defeated her in the quarterfinal of the Stuttgart Open 6-4, 6-1.
As for Osorio, the duo faced each other in the 2023 Madrid Open. Sabalenka chalked up a solid win against the Colombian 6-4, 7-5. She shouldn't have too many problems getting past the third round.
Aryna Sabalenka's 4R opponent - Amanda Anisimova / Yulia Putintseva
Next up, Aryna Sabalenka is expected to face Amanda Anisimova or Yulia Putintseva in the fourth round.
Sabalenka trails the head-to-head battle against Anisimova 2-5 and lost their most recent encounter in the 2024 Canada Open. The American has a great chance to cause an upset in the fourth round. She has already defeated Sabalenka thrice on clay so far, including a remarkable win in the 2022 Madrid Open.
Meanwhile, the Belarusian leads the head-to-head against Putintseva 2-1. She shouldn't have too many problems getting past the Kazakh in the last 16.
Aryna Sabalenka's QF Opponent - Paula Badosa / Zheng Qinwen / Marta Kostyuk
Things only get trickier for Aryna Sabalenka once she reaches the quarterfinals of the Madrid Open.
Paula Badosa of Spain or Zheng Qinwen of China could be her most likely opponents in the quarterfinal. Both players have a reputation for being stubborn customers on the court and will test Sabalenka to the limit.
The top seed has already faced Badosa in the semifinal of the Australian Open this year. She registered a comfortable win against the Spaniard.
As for Zheng Qinwen, Sabalenka holds a commanding 6-0 lead in their head-to-head battle. She defeated the Chinese No. 1 most recently in the quarterfinals of the Miami Open this year.
Sabalenka will be the favorite to enter the semifinal against both of her potential opponents. She has also fared equally well against World No. 36, Marta Kostyuk, leading her 2-0 in their head-to-head record. The Belarusian has made light work of the Ukrainian on both occasions.
Aryna Sabalenka's SF Opponent - Jasmine Paolini / Elena Rybakina / Jessica Pegula
Next, Aryna Sabalenka's most likely opponents in the semifinal could be Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula, or Jasmine Paolini.
All of the above opponents are among the top 10 players on the tour. Sabalenka once again stands tall when it comes to her head-to-head battle against those opponents. She leads Pegula 7-2, Rybakina 6-4, and Paolini 5-2.
The Belarusian recently defeated Jasmine Paolini in the semifinal of the Stuttgart Open. Despite a valiant effort by the Italian, she held her nerve to win in straight sets 7-5, 6-4.
Jessica Pegula will enter Madrid after a title-winning run in Charleston and a quarterfinal exit in Stuttgart. If the American finds her range at the start of the event, she could cause an upset in the semifinal.
As for Rybakina, the Kazakh has never beaten Sabalenka on clay. The duo faced each other in the semifinal of the Madrid Open last year, with Rybakina ending up on the losing side. She is also yet to begin her European clay court season on tour.
Aryna Sabaleka's Final Opponent - Coco Gauff / Iga Swiatek
Lastly, Aryna Sabalenka's final test in the Madrid Open could be an encounter against defending champion Iga Swiatek or American Coco Gauff.
Sabalenka trails the head-to-head against Swiatek 4-8. She has faced the youngster six times on clay and only managed one win so far. Swiatek defeated her in the final of the Madrid Open last year, 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(7).
Out-of-form American Coco Gauff also has an outside chance to enter the finals of the Madrid Open this year. She leads the head-to-head battle against Sabalenka 5-4.
However, Gauff has lost two out of her last three matches against Sabalenka. The Belarusian will be a favorite to pass the test against her this year.