Madrid Open 2025: Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (4) Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi
Date: April 26, 2025
Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open
Round: Second Round (Round of 64)
Venue: La Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $8,619,262
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN+
Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi preview
Fourth seed Novak Djokovic will look to get his 2025 Madrid Open campaign underway when he takes on Italy's Matteo Arnaldi in the second round. 2025 so far has been a tumultuous season for the Serb, as he has had some decent results, but he has had some unexpected losses as well. Injuries have also played their part, as he had to retire from his semifinal clash against Alexander Zverev at the Australian Open.
Before the clay season, Djokovic had a great run at the Miami Open, where he reached the final, losing 6-7 (4), 6-7 (4) against Jakub Mensik. He began his clay season with an underwhelming match at the Monte-Carlo Masters, losing 3-6, 4-6 against Alejandro Tabilo in the second round. However, it seems that the Serb is back to full fitness and will be able to put forward a better performance in Madrid after receiving an opening-round bye.
Matteo Arnaldi has a 9-9 win/loss record so far this season, with his best results coming in consecutive events in Dallas and Delray Beach. He reached the quarterfinals in Dallas, losing 4-6, 6-3, 3-6 against Jaume Munar. He followed it up with a semifinal run in Delray Beach, losing 4-6, 4-6 against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Arnaldi did not have the best of starts to his clay season, as he had opening-round exits in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, losing against Richard Gasquet and Sebastian Korda, respectively. However, he got his first win on clay in 2025, when he won 4-6, 6-4, 7-5 against Borna Coric in the first round of the Madrid Open.
Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi head-to-head
This will be the first meeting between the two players on the ATP Tour.
Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction
Djokovic has 20 clay-court titles in his career with an 80 percent win rate on the surface. He has a 30-9 record in Madrid, having won the title three times, the last of which was in 2019 when the Serb won with a 6-3, 6-4 win against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final.
Matteo Arnaldi has yet to reach his first final on the ATP Tour on any surface. The Italian player, however, has won five clay-court titles on the Challenger and ITF Tours. His last clay-court title came at the Challenger event in Helibronn in 2023, where he won 7-6, 6-1 against Facundo Diaz Acosta in the final.
If Djokovic is back to his full fitness, then he is the clear favorite to win the upcoming match. In case he is still physically compromised, that might create an opening for Arnaldi, but the Serb's overall experience should see him through to the next round.
Pick- Djokovic to win in straight sets.