Madrid Open 2025: Tommy Paul vs Joao Fonseca preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (11) Tommy Paul vs Joao Fonseca
Date: April 26, 2025
Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open
Round: Second Round (Round of 64)
Venue: La Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $8,619,262
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN+
Tommy Paul vs Joao Fonseca preview
Eleventh seed Tommy Paul will begin his 2025 Madrid Open campaign with an intense second-round clash against Brazilian teen sensation João Fonseca. Paul has had a decent start to the season, winning 15 of the 21 matches he has played so far. He reached the semifinal at the Adelaide International, losing 6-7 (3), 6-4, 3-6 against Felix Auger-Aliassime.
After reaching the quarterfinal at the Australian Open (lost to Alexander Zverev), Paul also made it to the semifinal of the Dallas Open, losing 5-7, 3-6 against Denis Shapovalov. After an indifferent Sunshine Double, Paul began his clay-court swing with another semifinal in Houston, losing 6-7 (5), 6-3, 6-7 (6) against Jenson Brooksby. Being seeded, Paul received a bye in the first round in Madrid.
In his first year on the ATP Tour, João Fonseca has been the talk of the town in the tennis world, as the Brazilian youngster has made rapid strides on the Tour already. Fonseca won his maiden title in Buenos Aires, with a 6-4, 7-6 (1) against Francisco Cerundolo in the final. Barring that title, Fonseca has also won two Challenger titles in Canberra and Phoenix this year.
The Brazilian had a decent outing at the Miami Open as well, with good wins over Learner Tien and Ugo Humbert. He pushed Alex de Minaur to three sets in the third round, finally losing the match 7-5, 5-7, 3-6. He began his campaign in Madrid with a dominating 6-2, 6-3 win over Elmer Moller in the first round.
Tommy Paul vs Joao Fonseca head-to-head
This will be the first meeting between the two players on the ATP Tour.
Tommy Paul vs Joao Fonseca odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Tommy Paul vs Joao Fonseca prediction
Clay has been one surface where Paul has yet to reach a Tour-level final. He did have a decent outing in Houston this year, but he still lacks the movement required on the surface. Also, the American has a poor 2-4 win/loss record in Madrid with a 33 percent win rate.
Fonseca has already proved his credentials on clay, with his title in Buenos Aires. He also reached the Challenger Final on the surface last year in Asuncion, losing 5-7, 7-6 (6), 1-6 against Gustavo Heide.
Fonseca has already secured wins over Top 10 players like Andrey Rublev and managed to go toe-to-toe against someone like Alex de Minaur. During his title run in Buenos Aires, he came back after being match points down. The match being on clay makes the Brazilian teenager the favorite to cause an upset in the upcoming match.
Pick- Fonseca to win in three sets