Italian Open 2024: Men's singles draw analysis, preview and prediction ft. potential Rafael Nadal-Holger Rune 4R clash
The men's singles draw for the Italian Open has been released and there are some exciting matchups awaiting us in Rome. Rafael Nadal will return to the Foro Italico after missing out in 2023.
The likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will not compete due to injuries. However, several big names are competing like Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, and Casper Ruud, among others.
On that note, let's take a look at how the men's singles draw could unfold.
First Quarter: Novak Djokovic will be aiming for his 7th title at the Italian Open
Seeded Players: (1) Novak Djokovic, (5) Casper Ruud, (12) Ben Shelton,(16) Karen Khachanov, (19) Francisco Cerundolo, (20) Adrian Mannarino, (29) Alejandro Tabilo, (32) Jordan Thompson
Expected Quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud
Dark Horse: Gael Monfils
Analysis: Top seed Novak Djokovic has not been at his lethal best but we can always expect him to have an impressive run in Rome given his quality. The Serb should be able to reach the fourth round without much trouble, where his opponent would be either Francisco Cerundolo or Karen Khachanov.
Both players do well on clay but Djokovic should be able to get the better of either of the two and reach the quarterfinals of the Italian Open.
The other side of this quarter has fifth seed Casper Ruud and Ben Shelton, and it could very well come down to between those two for a place in the quarterfinals. The Norwegian is a terrific clay court player and he should be able to beat the American to reach the last eight of the Italian Open.
Ruud would face Djokovic in the quarterfinals and given his recent run of form, there is a good chance of the former beating the Serb again and reaching the semifinals in Rome.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Casper Ruud def. Novak Djokovic
Second Quarter: Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz and Grigor Dimitrov in contention for QF spots
Seeded Players: (3) Alexander Zverev, (8) Grigor Dimitrov, (11) Taylor Fritz, (15) Alexander Bublik, (23) Tallon Griekspoor, (24) Sebastian Korda, (26) Lorenzo Musetti, (28) Mariano Navone
Expected quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz
Dark Horse: Dan Evans
Analysis: Third seed Alexander Zverev is among the title contenders at the Italian Open and he has received a rather favorable draw till the fourth round. Here, he would most likely take on Alexander Bublik, although Tallon Griekspoor should not be written off.
Zverev should be able to beat the Kazakh and reach the quarterfinals of the Italian Open due to his superior quality on clay.
The other side of this quarter has the likes of Taylor Fritz, Grigor Dimitrov and Sebastian Korda. While all three are formidable competitors, it could eventually come down to a fourth-round match between Fritz and Dimitrov.
While the Bulgarian has looked in good touch, the American has looked in good form lately and should just about be able to get the win and reach the quarterfinals of the Italian Open.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Alexander Zverev def. Taylor Fritz
Third Quarter: Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas could lock horns in QF
Seeded Players: (4) Andrey Rublev, (6) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (9) Alex de Minaur, (13) Ugo Humbert, (18) Felix Auger-Aliassime, (21) Nicolas Jarry, (27) Cameron Norrie, (31) Arthur Fils
Expected quarterfinal: Andrey Rublev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Dark Horse: Jan-Lennard Struff
Analysis: Madrid Open champion Andrey Rublev is in this quarter and will face either Marcos Giron or Emil Ruusuvuori in the second round. The Russian will most likely face 31st seed Arthur Fils in the third round and should manage another win to reach the fourth round.
Here, Rublev could most likely face 13th seed Ugo Humbert, who has been in pretty good form lately. The Russian, however, will be on high morale after his triumph in Madrid, and he should be able to come out on top to reach the last eight of the Italian Open.
The other side of this quarter has sixth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas along with Alex de Minaur and Madrid runner-up Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Greek should be able to reach the fourth round in Rome without much trouble and here, his opponent will most likely be Auger-Aliassime, even though De Minaur should not be written off.
Tsitsipas will most likely get the win and reach the quarterfinals of the Italian Open. Here, he will take on Rublev, and if the latter is at his mental best, he could come out on top and reach the semifinals in Rome.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Andrey Rublev def. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Fourth Quarter: Rafael Nadal faces tough draw in Rome
Seeded Players: (2) Daniil Medvedev, (7) Hubert Hurkacz, (10) Holger Rune, (14) Tommy Paul, (17) Sebastian Baez, (22) Frances Tiafoe, (25) Tomas Martin Etcheverry, (30) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Expected Quarterfinal: Rafael Nadal vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Dark Horse: Rafael Nadal
Analysis: This will be arguably the most followed quarter in the tournament as it has Rafael Nadal and defending champion Daniil Medvedev. The Spaniard faces a qualifier in the opening round and could be up against Hubert Hurkacz if he reaches the second round.
Nadal has a very tough draw as his future opponents include Hubert Hurkacz and Tomas Martin Etcheverry. However, if the 37-year-old is at his best, he should be able to overcome them and reach the fourth round. Here, he will most likely take on tenth seed Holger Rune.
While the Dane is a very good player on clay, Nadal's mentality could see him edge out the Dane and reach the quarterfinals.
The other half of this quarter has the defending champion Daniil Medvedev. The Russian faces either Jack Draper or Borna Coric in the second round. He should be able to beat either of the two and reach the third round, where his opponent will most likely be 30th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Medvedev may not be at his best physically after picking up an injury in Madrid and there is a chance the Spaniard could beat him. Davidovich Fokina will next take on either 14th seed Tommy Paul or 22nd seed Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round. The Spaniard is a fine clay court player and he should be able to beat either of the two to reach the quarterfinals in Rome.
We could have an all-Spanish last-eight clash between Nadal and Davidovich Fokina at the Italian Open. The 37-year-old's clay court quality and mentality should be more than enough to see him reach the semifinals if he is fit.
Quarterfinal prediction: Rafael Nadal def. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Italian Open semifinal and final predictions
Semifinal Predictions
Casper Ruud def. Alexander Zverev
Rafael Nadal def. Andrey Rublev
Final Prediction
Rafael Nadal def. Casper Ruud