Miami Open 2024: Women's singles draw analysis, preview, and prediction ft. potential Iga Swiatek-Coco Gauff semifinal
After a fortnight of exhilarating tennis action in Indian Wells, the WTA Tour heads to Miami Open for the second stop of the ‘Sunshine Double’ series.
World No. 1 Iga Swiatek leads the field at the tournament’s 39th edition in the absence of defending champion Petra Kvitova, who is away on maternity leave.
Last year’s beaten finalist Elena Rybakina and reigning Grand Slam champions Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff also feature in the draw. The tournament will also have former World No. 1 Simona Halep return to action after a successful doping appeal.
With main draw action set to commence on Tuesday (March 19), here’s a look at the prospects of the top names in the Miami Open draw:
1st quarter: Iga Swiatek faces familiar foes, Jessica Pegula faces Jasmine Paolini test
Top seeds: [1] Iga Swiatek, [5] Jessica Pegula, [12] Jasmine Paolini, [14] Ekaterina Alexandrova
Dark horse: Emma Navarro
Top seed Iga Swiatek finds herself set for rematches against Linda Noskova and Ekaterina Alexandrova — both of whom she has already played against this season — early in her pursuit of the 'Sunshine Double'.
The Indian Wells champion, who will first need to get past the winner of the Camila Giorgi-Magdalena Frech opener, has suffered a surprise loss to Noskova at the Australian Open. While she has made amends since, triumphing over the Czech youngster in Indian Wells, the latter remains a tricky opponent.
Also crowding Swiatek’s section are big-hitters Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Karolina Plsikova and Donna Vekic. Barring the Croat, the others have a poor past record against the World No. 1
Pegula, the other big seed in the quarter, finds herself in a similarly packed section. 2024 title winners Jasmine Paolini and Emma Navarro are her projected fourth-round opponents, provided that she gets past Leylah Fernandez first.
The America’s 6-4 start to the season hardly inspires any confidence, especially when pitted against the likes of Paolini — who is still fresh of her first WTA 1000 title in Dubai — and Navarro — who has an Indian Wells SF to show for besides her title in Hobart this year.
Prediction: Swiatek def. Paolini
2nd quarter: Coco Gauff, Ons Jabeur lead open section of the draw
Top seeds: [3] Coco Gauff, [6] Ons Jabeur, [10] Daria Kasatkina, [15] Elina Svitolina
Dark horse: Ashlyn Krueger
Coco Gauff may run into the talented Ashlyn Krueger, the youngster who held match point against Aryna Sabalenka in Indian Wells, in her second-round encounter. The free-swinging Ukrainian, Marta Kostyuk, awaits the winner of that likely all-American contest in the third round of the Miami Open.
Another exciting second-round contest in the offing may see Elina Svitolina take on Naomi Osaka. While the Japanese player has begun to rediscover her best tennis, finding a way past Svitolina’s defensive wall will be no cakewalk.
Carolina Garcia looms ahead for the winner of that battle, but the Frenchwoman will first have to take care of Viktoriya Tomova — the Bulgarian No. 1 who pushed her to three sets just last week at Indian Wells.
Ons Jabeur also finds herself in an open section of the draw. The Tunisian, who is yet to win consecutive matches in 2024, has some breathing room, but will need to find her stride in time for opponents like Anastasia Potapova in the third round of the Miami Open and either Daria Kasatkina or Sorana Cirstea in the fourth.
Prediction: Coco Gauff def. Sorana Cirstea
3rd quarter: 2023 Miami Open finalist Elena Rybakina in action, faces a rejuvenated Maria Sakkari
Top seeds: [4] Elena Rybakina, [8] Maria Sakkari, [9] Jelena Ostapenko, [16] Veronika Kudermetova
Dark horse: Anna Kalinskaya
Indian Wells finalist Maria Sakkari will look to continue her revival under new coach David Witt, but faces tricky early rounds. She may run into Chinese No. 2 and Austin champion Yue Yuan in her opener, with Australian Open semifinalist Dayana Yastermska looming ahead.
While Sakkari has historically done well against big-hitters with a tendency to overpress (both Yuan and Yastremska stand guilty as charged), an early upset cannot be ruled out completely.
More big hitting is in store for the Greek and Jelena Ostapenko and Kalinskaya loom in the fourth round. While the former has already won two titles this season, the latter made her biggest final in Dubai after posting wins over Swiatek, Gauff and Ostapenko herself.
Elena Rybakina returns to competition after having withdrawn from Indian Wells due to an illness. In the absence of Petra Kvitova, whom she lost to in the last year’s final, she will be the de facto defending Miami Open champion.
The likes of Elise Mertens, Madison Keys and Veronika Kudermetova crowd her section. Mertens showed signs of life at Indian Wells after cleaning up Osaka in the third round, but the others have failed to impress of late. Venus Williams will also her (incredible) 22nd Miami Open appearance.
Prediction: Jelena Osatpenko def. Elena Rybakina
4th quarter: Aryna Sabalenka, Zheng Qinwen on collission course as Simona Halep returns
Top seeds: [2] Aryna Sabalenka, [7] Zheng Qinwen, [11] Beatriz Haddad Maia, [13] Liumila Samsonova
Dark horse: Katie Boulter
All eyes were on Zheng Qinwen after she made her maiden Grand Slam final at the Australian Open in January, but her 3-3 win-loss since has been modest at best. The Chinese who is still looking for a big result to follow her Melbourne heroics with may find the going tough against the ever-tenacious Ana Bogdan, her possible second-round opponent.
If she were to find answers to the Romanian’s killer backhand strike and never-say-die attitude, Zheng would be rewarded with an encounter against former champion Victoria Azarenka.
Her projected fourth-round opponent at the Miami Open, Beatriz Haddad Maia, will also need to find her stride quickly as she finds San Diego champion Katie Boulter breathing down her neck. The quicker conditions at the Miami Open will favor the risk-takers and big serves and Voulter may fancy her chances.
Second seed Aryna Sabalenka was handed a nightmarish opener at the Miami Open, drawing the winner of Simona Halep-Paula Badosa first-round clash. Halep, for one, will be raring to go as she returns to court having won the appeal in her doping ban that has been sidelined since the back end of 2022.
The Romanian’s dogged brand of tennis has always troubled Sabalenka, who trails their head-to-head 2-3. That said, a lot will depend on how quickly Halep rediscovers her stride.
The winner of this likely second-round battle has an easier path ahead, with only the mercurial Liudmila Samsonova to worry about in the fourth round of the Miami Open.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka def. Victoria Azarenka
Prediction for the SF
Coco Gauff def. Iga Swiatek
Aryna Sabalenka def. Jelena Ostapenko
Prediction for the final
Coco Gauff def. Aryna Sabalenka