Miami Open 2025: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (10) Alex de Minaur vs (29) Matteo Berrettini
Date: March 24, 2025
Tournament: Miami Open 2025
Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, United States
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $9,193,540
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini preview
World No. 11 Alex de Minaur will take on former Wimbledon runner-up Matteo Berrettini in the fourth round of the Miami Open 2025.
De Minaur beat Yunchaokete Bu 6-4, 6-4 in the second round to set up a third-round showdown with teen sensation Joao Fonseca. Both players were on even footing for most of the opening set until the teenager pulled ahead towards the end with a three-game run to clinch the set.
De Minaur was quick to begin his comeback, racing to a 3-0 lead in the second set. However, Fonseca won three games on the trot to level the score. The Aussie eventually had the last laugh, snagging a break of serve in the 12th game of the set to take it.
Fonseca struck first in the third set to go 2-0 up, but de Minaur flipped the script in no time. He reeled off five consecutive games to go 5-2 up and closed out the match soon after that for a 5-7, 7-5, 6-3 comeback win.
Berrettini rallied from a set down to beat Hugo Gaston 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 in the second round. He was up against Zizou Bergs for a spot in the fourth round. The Italian initially squandered his lead in the first set but recovered with a three-game run to claim it. A single break of serve in the second set proved to be more than enough for him to register a 6-4, 6-4 victory.
Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini head-to-head
Berrettini leads de Minaur 2-1 in the head-to-head. The Italian won their previous encounter at Wimbledon 2023 in straight sets.
Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini prediction
Berrettini had previously never won a match in Miami in his previous three attempts. He overturned that dismal stat this year and now has a chance to make the last eight for the first time. De Minaur has matched his best result at the venue by reaching the fourth round. He will be keen to surpass it by booking his spot in the quarterfinals.
While Berrettini leads their rivalry 2-1, both of his wins have come on grass. De Minaur won their only encounter on hardcourts at the ATP Cup 2022. All of their previous matches were decided in straight sets.
De Minaur has more than twice as many wins as Berrettini this year. The latter has not won three matches in a row this year and has a 1-4 record against top 20 players. Given his form this season, the Aussie is likely to grind down his big-hitting opponent to level their head-to-head with a win this time.
Pick: Alex de Minaur to win in straight sets.