Miami Open 2025 Final: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (4) Jessica Pegula
Date: March 29, 2025
Tournament: Miami Open 2025
Round: Final
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, United States
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $8,963,700
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula preview
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will take on fourth seed Jessica Pegula in the final of the Miami Open 2025.
Sabalenka didn't drop a set en route to the semifinals, scoring wins over Viktoriya Tomova, Elena-Gabriela Ruse, defending champion Danielle Collins, and ninth seed Zheng Qinwen along the way. She was up against sixth seed Jasmine Paolini for a spot in the championship round.
Sabalenka was locked in right from the first point, and aside from an occasional hiccup, dominated Paolini until the end. She broke her opponent's serve twice in each set to register a comfortable 6-2, 6-2 win.
Pegula commenced her run in Miami with a 6-4, 6-4 win over Bernarda Pera and followed it up with a comeback win over 32nd seed Anna Kalinskaya. She beat 23rd seed Marta Kostyuk 6-2, 6-3 in the fourth round but was pushed to three sets by Emma Raducanu in the quarterfinals. The American faced teen sensation Alexandra Eala in the semifinals.
The first set went down to the wire, with Pegula coming out on top in the ensuing tie-break to claim the set. There were a few momentum shifts in the second set, and each player was in front at one point. However, it was Eala who held her nerve in the end, bagging three games in a row to take the set.
Both players were in the zone for most of the third set. Pegula upped the ante in the eighth game of the set by breaking Eala's serve to go 5-3 up. She comfortably served out the match in the next game for a 7-6 (3), 5-7, 6-3 win.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula head-to-head
Sabalenka leads Pegula 6-2 in the head-to-head. The former beat the latter in the final of the US Open 2024 in straight sets, their most recent encounter.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula prediction
Pegula survived yet another three-set thriller, her third of the tournament, to punch her ticket into the Miami final for the first time in her career. She put an end to Eala's dream run, hitting 36 winners along with 46 unforced errors while doing so.
Sabalenka, on the other hand, was at her dominant best against Paolini to secure her spot in the Miami Open final for the first time. She blasted 31 winners against 12 unforced errors while winning 78 percent of her first serve points as well. However, she will be having a sense of deja vu at the moment.
Sabalenka reached the Indian Wells final a couple of weeks ago without dropping a set, including a 6-0, 6-1 thrashing of Madison Keys in the semifinals. She won the first set against Mirra Andreeva in the final and simply unraveled after that, losing the match. She will be keen to avoid a repeat of that in Miami.
Pegula and Sabalenka's last couple of matches took place at high-profile events as well. The latter beat the former in the finals of last year's Cincinnati Open and US Open in straight sets. The Belarusian has been in red-hot form in Miami. Coupled with her record against her American rival, she will be the favorite to win the title, especially if she maintains her form from the semifinals.
Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets.