Miami Open 2025: Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (4) Novak Djokovic vs (15) Lorenzo Musetti
Date: March 25
Tournament: Miami Open 2025
Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, US
Category: Masters 1000
Surface: Outdoor hardcourt
Prize Money: $9,193,540
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports
Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti preview
Fourth seed Novak Djokovic will face 15th seed Lorenzo Musetti in the fourth round of the Miami Open on March 25. Whoever out of the two wins, will take on either Gael Monfils or 24th seed Sebastian Korda in the quarterfinals of the Masters 1000 event.
Djokovic has won nine out of 13 matches so far in 2025, with his best performance being reaching the semifinals of the Australian Open. After this, the Serb suffered a couple of early exits at the Qatar Open and the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.
He reached the second round of the Miami Open via a walkover due to his seeding and faced Rinky Hijikata. The Serb beat the Aussie 6-0, 7-6(1) to set up a third-round clash against Camilo Ugo Carabelli. Here, he registered an almost identical win over the Argentine, triumphing 6-1, 7-6(1) to reach the fourth round of the Masters 1000 event.
Lorenzo Musetti has won seven out of ten matches so far in the 2025 season, having reached two quarterfinals. The Italian entered the Miami Open after losing in the third round of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.
He reached a bye to the second round of the Masters 1000 event and here, he came back from a set down to win 3-6, 7-6(4), 7-,5, and set up a third-round clash with Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Italian once again bounced back from a set down and this time, he won 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 to reach the second round of the Miami Open for the second successive year.
Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti head-to-head
Djokovic currently leads 7-1 in the head-to-head between the two, with their last match coming in the semifinals of the Paris Olympics. The Serb won 6-4, 6-2 to reach the final, where he beat Carlos Alcaraz to clinch the Olympic gold medal that had eluded him for so long.
Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti odds
Odds sourced from BETMGM.
Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction
Djokovic will enter the match as the favorite to win but Musetti can produce some impressive tennis on his day and is capable of giving the Serb a run for his money.
The Serb has been impressive on his first serve at the Miami Open so far, having won 72 out of 88 points (81.8%), with 19 aces to his name. The 37-year-old also hit 37 winners while producing 31 unforced errors. While his game is hard to counter, he will have to rely a lot more on his mentality given his fitness issues and the fact that his form has not been as impressive as most would expect it to be.
Musetti's first-serve numbers in Miami have not been particularly impressive as he has won 93 out of 139 points (66.9%) so far. The Italian has also produced 52 winners compared to 53 unforced errors. Musetti has a decent defense but playing offensively could work well for him. His backhand is a highly versatile one and he will look to make the most out of it.
With the likes of Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev eliminated, many would expect the Serb to be the heaviest favorite to win the Miami Open. However, considering the fitness issues that he has had lately, it won't be much of a surprise if Musetti is able to just about get the better of him.
Pick: Musetti to win in three sets.