Miami Open 2025 Semifinal: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction and pick
Match Details
Fixture: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (6) Jasmine Paolini
Date: March 27, 2025
Tournament: Miami Open 2025
Round: Semifinals
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, US
Category: WTA 1000
Surface: Outdoor hardcourt
Prize Money: $8,963,700
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini preview
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will face sixth seed Jasmine Paolini in the semifinals of the Miami Open on Thursday, 27 March. Both players have reached the semifinals in Miami for the first time.
Top seed Sabalenka has reached the semifinals without dropping a set. She defeated 14th seed Danielle Collins 6-4, 6-4 in the fourth round and ninth seed Zheng Qinwen 6-2, 7-5 in the quarterfinals.
The 26-year-old Sabalenka has a 21-4 win-loss record in 2025 and has won one title so far, which was in Brisbane. Sabalenka lost the final of the Australian Open against Madison Keys before Mirra Andreeva defeated her in the final of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.
Meanwhile, the 29-year-old Paolini has reached her first semifinal of the season, as she failed to reach the quarterfinals at the Australian Open and the first three WTA-1000 events of the season.
The Italian has dropped only one set so far in the tournament, which was against the former World No. 1 Naomi Osaka in the fourth round. She defeated Poland's Magda Linette 6-3, 6-2 in the quarterfinals.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini head-to-head
Aryna Sabalenka leads Jasmine Paolini 3-2 in their head-to-head record. The Italian won in their first meeting on the grass court in an ITF event in 2017, but Sabalenka leads 3-1 in their matches on hard courts. Sabalenka also won their most recent meeting in the WTA Finals four months back.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini odds
(Odds source: BetMGM)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini prediction
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka would be hoping to reach her fourth consecutive final in USA, as she won the Cincinnati Open and US Open in 2024 and also reached the final in Indian Wells earlier this month.
She has a 118-46 win-loss record at WTA-1000 event and it would mark her 12th WTA-1000 final if she beats Paolini. Sabalenka has 9931 points in the live WTA rankings which means that she can reach the five-figure mark with this win.
Paolini, on the other hand, has an opportunity to improve her ranking, as she started this week as World No. 7 and overtook Mirra Andreeva with her quarterfinal win. She can overtake Madison Keys with a win against Sabalenka and if she wins the title, she will become World No. 4 again.
The Italian has a 5-3 win-loss record in Miami, as she won just one match in her previous three appearances in Miami. Paolini has a 35-29 win-loss record at WTA-1000 events and has not reached final of any WTA-1000 tournament since winning the Dubai Open in 2024.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets