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Monte-Carlo Masters 2023: Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Novak Djokovic vs (16) Lorenzo Musetti.

Date: April 13, 2023.

Tournament: Monte-Carlo Masters 2023.

Round: Third round (Round of 16).

Venue: Monte Carlo, Monaco.

Category: ATP Masters 1000.

Surface: Outdoor clay.

Prize money: €5,779,335.

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video.


Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti preview

Novak Djokovic at the 2023 Monte-Carlo Masters.
Novak Djokovic at the 2023 Monte-Carlo Masters.

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic will take on 16th seed Lorenzo Musetti in the third round of the 2023 Monte-Carlo Masters on Thursday.

After a first-round bye, Djokovic was up against qualifier Ivan Gakhov. The Russian drew first blood in the opening set by securing a break of serve in the seventh game to go 4-3 up.

Djokovic broke back immediately to level the score. The set eventually went to a tie-break, in which the Serb gained the upper hand to claim it. The 35-year old then raised his level in the second set, going on a five-game run to win the match 7-6 (5), 6-2.

Musetti, meanwhile, defeated Miomir Kecmanovic, runner-up in singles and doubles at last week's Estoril Open, in the first round here. He faced compatriot Luca Nardi in the second round.

Musetti proved to be too good for Nardi. The 21-year-old outclassed his fellow Italian from start to finish, dishing out a couple of bagels to win the match 6-0, 6-0. He has now made it to the third round in Monte-Carlo for the second year in a row.


Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti head-to-head

Djokovic leads Musetti 3-0 in the head-to-head. He won their previous encounter at the 2022 Paris Masters in straight sets.


Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap Bets
Total Games
Novak Djokovic
-550+1.5 (-1600)
Over 20.5 (-125)
Lorenzo Musetti
+375-1.5 (+650)
Under 20.5 (-110)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction

Lorenzo Musetti at the 2023 United Cup.
Lorenzo Musetti at the 2023 United Cup.

After a closely contested first set, Djokovic upped his game to dispatch Gakhov in the previous round. The Serb was a little rusty, but considering it was his first match on clay, it was expected. He struck 19 winners against 13 unforced errors and won 78% of his first serve points.

Musetti, on the other hand, faced no resistance in the second round, handing Nardi a beatdown. The difference in the quality of the opposition is about to change drastically for him. A dominant scoreline against any other player is no indication of one's form when going up against Djokovic.

Musetti and Djokovic's first encounter was on clay, at the 2021 French Open. The Italian captured the first couple of sets but lost the next two before retiring due to an injury in the fifth set.

The 21-year-old's shotmaking, especially his one-handed backhand, can put his opponents in a spot of bother. However, Djokovic is simply too consistent across all metrics for Musetti to wear him down.

The World No. 1 has lost just one match this season to an in-form Daniil Medvedev at the Dubai Tennis Championships. Even if challenged by Musetti, the Serb is likely to one-up his opponent in the end to advance further.

Pick: Novak Djokovic to win in straight sets.

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