Montreal 2021: Women's singles draw analysis, preview & prediction | National Bank Open
With the Tokyo Olympics now in the books, the heavyweights of the WTA tour will shift their focus to the US hardcourt swing, beginning with the 2021 National Bank Open in Montreal.
The tournament returns to the tennis calendar after being scrapped in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Aryna Sabalenka headlines the event as the top seed and is followed by second seed and defending champion Bianca Andreescu.
2017 champion and Olympic bronze medalist Elina Svitolina is seeded third while Karolina Pliskova completes the top four. Garbine Muguruza, two-time champion Simona Halep, Petra Kvitova, and Victoria Azarenka round out the top eight seeds.
The notable absentees include World No. 1 Ashleigh Barty, Naomi Osaka, Sofia Kenin, Iga Swiatek, Olympic gold medalist Belinda Bencic and Roland Garros champion Barbora Krejcikova.
The 2021 National Bank Open is scheduled to begin on 9 August and is a WTA 1000 event.
Without further ado, let's look at how the draw could unfold, beginning with the first quarter.
1st quarter: Aryna Sabalenka, Maria Sakkari, and Victoria Azarenka vie for supremacy
Seeded players: [1] Aryna Sabalenka, [8] Victoria Azarenka, [11] Maria Sakkari, [16] Madison Keys
Expected quarterfinal: Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Azarenka
Analysis: After beginning the year with a hardcourt title in Abu Dhabi, Aryna Sabalenka's performances on the surface have dropped off. Her best results on hardcourt have come in Dubai and Miami, where she made the quarterfinals. At the recently concluded Olympic Games, she fell in the second round to Donna Vekic.
In Montreal, she has received a bye in the opening round and will cross swords with Dayana Yastremska or Sloane Stephens in the second round. While Sabalenka has a 1-0 head-to-head advantage against Stephens, she has not beaten Yastremska in three meetings.
Stephens and Yastremska have never faced each other on tour before and come into their first-round fixture in rather poor form. Stephens lost her second match at the Silicon Valley Classic in San Jose, while Yastremska is still finding her feet after her suspension.
2016 runner-up Madison Keys begins her campaign against Canadian Rebecca Marino. Should she win that fixture, a second-round clash against Paula Badosa or Viktorija Golubic awaits her. Keys and Golubic squared off at Wimbledon, with the Swiss winning in straight sets.
Elsewhere, Maria Sakkari has been drawn to face Marie Bouzkova in the first round, a player she has beaten in the past (Wimbledon 2019).
In the second round, Sakkari could face either Yulia Putintseva or Veronika Kudermetova, both of whom have beaten the Greek in the past. Sakkari, has never beaten the Russian but has two victories over Putintseva.
Alison Riske and Sorana Cirstea, who have played each other a whopping seven times on tour, will lock horns in the first round. The winner of that match will face eighth seed Victoria Azarenka in the second round. The Belarusian has received an opening-round bye.
Azarenka lost to Cirstea at Wimbledon. She has never faced off against Riske.
Prediction: [1] Aryna Sabalenka def. [11] Maria Sakkari
Early round matches to watch out for: Dayana Yastremska vs Sloane Stephens; Veronika Kudermetova vs Yulia Putintseva
2nd quarter: Can Garbine Muguruza rediscover her form?
Seeded players: [4] Karolina Pliskova, [5] Garbine Muguruza, [12] Elena Rybakina, [14] Karolina Muchova
Expected quarterfinal: Karolina Pliskova vs Garbine Muguruza
Analysis: Karolina Pliskova endured a difficult start to the season but turned things around in style with a runner-up finish at Wimbledon. She will be looking to continue in the same vein in Montreal, where she has been given a bye in the first round.
Donna Vekic, or a qualifier, will lie in wait for Pliskova in the second round.
Karolina Muchova is the other seeded player in Pliskova's section of the draw. Muchova will face a qualifier in the first as well as the second round.
The Czech has a commendable 17-6 win-loss record in 2021 so far and even made the semifinals of the Australian Open. If Muchova finds her range, she could spell trouble for everyone in this quarter.
Also in this quarter is Garbine Muguruza, as well as several giant killers who could give the Spaniard a tough time.
Muguruza began the year in spectacular fashion, going 21-5 (win-loss) by the end of the Miami Open. However, the Spaniard's form has nosedived since and she has made the quarterfinals of just two events.
The Spaniard could face stiff resistance from Elena Rybakina, Liudmila Samsonova, Sara Sorribes Tormo, or Jelena Ostapenka should their paths cross.
Prediction: [14] Karolina Muchova def. [5] Garbine Muguruza
Early round match to watch out for: Elena Rybakina vs Liudmila Samsonova
3rd quarter: Former champions Petra Kvitova and Elina Svitolina on a collision course
Seeded players: [3] Elina Svitolina, [7] Petra Kvitova, [9] Elise Mertens, [15] Coco Gauff
Expected quarterfinal: Elina Svitolina vs Petra Kvitova
Analysis: Petra Kvitova and Elina Svitolina both know what it takes to triumph in Canada, having won the title in the past (Svitolina in 2017 and Kvitova in 2012). But they could face plenty of resistance from a horde of top players who have landed in this section of the draw.
Ajla Tomljanovic, Camila Giorgi, Elise Mertens, and Coco Gauff all stand a good chance of making it to the quarterfinals from this quarter.
Kvitova has lost four of her last five matches, including an opening-round defeat at Wimbledon. The Czech has received a bye in the first round in Montreal and will lock horns with Fiona Ferro or Ajla Tomljanovic in the second round.
Meanwhile, Nadia Podoroska opens her campaign against Magda Linette, with the winner of this encounter set to take on Elise Mertens or Camila Giorgi. Mertens has not dropped a set to Giorgi in two previous meetings and is the favorite to progress.
The Belgian is into the semifinals of the Mubadala Silicon Valley Classic at the time of writing, and it remains to be seen how she handles the demands of back-to-back events.
Elsewhere, teenager Coco Gauff has been drawn to face Anastasija Sevastova for the third time this year and the fourth time overall. The Latvian defeated Gauff in Miami and Eastbourne.
Meanwhile, Brit Johanna Konta returns to action for the first time since winning the title in Nottingham. Konta has had a miserable few months after being forced to pull out of Wimbledon after a member of her team tested positive for COVID-19. She subsequently tested positive for the virus, forcing her to withdraw from the Olympics.
The Brit has been drawn to face Zhang Shuai in the first round, ahead of a potential second-round clash against Elina Svitolina.
Prediction: [3] Elina Svitolina def. [9] Elise Mertens
Early round match to watch out for: Coco Gauff vs Anastasija Sevastova
4th quarter: Can Bianca Andreescu find success in familiar territory?
Seeded players: [2] Bianca Andreescu, [6] Simona Halep, [10] Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova [13] Ons Jabeur
Expected quarterfinal: Bianca Andreescu vs Simona Halep
Analysis: Simona Halep returns to the tour after a long injury layoff. Halep was forced to miss a number of high-profile events, including the French Open, Wimbledon, and the Tokyo Olympics due to a calf injury.
Halep, a two-time champion (2016 and 2018) in Montreal, has been handed a bye in the first round. The sixth seed will face Danielle Collins or Jil Teichmann in the second round. Both Collins and Teichmann are feisty opponents who can trouble Halep, who is bound to be rusty in her first match.
Collins lost her only previous meeting with Teichmann but given her recent form, the American will be the favorite to come through. Collins is on an eight-match winning streak, which includes a run to the title in Palermo. At the time of writing, she is into the semifinals of the Mubadala Silicon Valley Classic as well.
Elsewhere, Jessica Pegula faces Anett Kontaveit in the first round. The American, who has a 27-14 win-loss record in 2021, has lost four of her last six matches.
Roland Garros runner-up and Olympic doubles gold medalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has been drawn to face a qualifier in the first round. Ons Jabeur, too, opens her campaign against a qualifier and could face the dangerous Daria Kasatkina in the second round.
Kasatkina, who is into the semifinals at San Jose, has been drawn to face Petra Martic in the first round. Martic owns a 2-1 head-to-head advantage over Kasatkina.
Second seed and defending champion Bianca Andreescu has been given a bye in the first round. The Canadian could face compatriot Leylah Fernandez in the second.
The former US Open champion will be seen in action for the first time since losing in the first round of Wimbledon, and she will hope to rediscover her best form on her strongest surface.
Prediction: [2] Bianca Andreescu def. Jessica Pegula
Early round match to watch out for: Petra Martic vs Daria Kasatkina
Semifinal predictions
Aryna Sabalenka def. Karolina Muchova
Elina Svitolina def. Bianca Andreescu
Prediction for the final
Elina Svitolina def. Aryna Sabalenka