Murray vs Djokovic - A mouth-watering contest on the cards on Super Sunday

Who will come out on top in this riveting contest?

Novak Djokovic took the court at Rod Laver Arena during the 2011 Australian Open final hoping to become a Grand Slam champion for only the second time in his career. Most of the tennis fans all over the world predicted a maiden Grand Slam victory for a certain Brit called Andy Murray, who was present on the other side of the court. The doubters, however, were left silenced by the Serb as he went on to bludgeon his opponent in straight sets, leaving no chance for the latter whatsoever. What followed then was a phenomenal year of tennis for Nole, who stayed unbeaten for the next 43 matches till he was floored by Roger Federer on the clay courts of Roland Garros.

That was probably the only hiccup the Serb had to experience at any Grand Sla in 2011, as he pocketed the remaining two biggies in Wimbledon and New York. Plus the six hour battle where he prevailed over Rafael Nadal in the final at Melbourne Park in 2012 deservedly needs a special mention. He might not have won a Grand Slam for the past eleven months, but then whenever he has made his way into the playing arena, barring last year’s French Open final, he has been considered the overwhelming favourite to win. Like a certain Roger Federer of 2005 and 2006, he has been carving a niche for himself as a special player on the ATP circuit.

At the start of this year’s Australian Open, as it has been for more than a year or so, he was rated as the red-hot favourite to win the men’s singles championship and, like always, he chose not to disappoint the game’s pundits. Except for a minor blip in his fourth round encounter against Stanslas Wawrinka, where he was unexpectedly stretched to five big sets, he was not tested much. Though he did drop a set against Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals, he looked very comfortable throughout the match. Having been placed in the top half of the draw by virtue of being the top seeded player, not only has he earned two days of well-deserved rest going into the finals, but he also made sure he did not stay on the court for long by finishing off his semifinal opponent, David Ferrer, under 90 minutes with the scoreline 6-2 6-2 6-1.

So just as it has been from the beginning of the “Happy Slam”, the Serb still remains the favourite to lift the Australian Open trophy for the fourth time in his elite career. If anyone can be hand-picked to deny Nole the opportunity to win an unprecedented hat-trick at Rod Laver Arena, then it has to be a player whose game is more or less similar to that of the former. Thankfully, fate seems to have found and given the perfect opponent for the Serb following Andy Murray’s five set victory over Switzerland’s Roger Federer in the second semifinal yesterday, and we now await a mouth watering contest this Sunday.

Murray, for a change, was really fortunate to have been handed arguably one of the easiest of draws. The only person who could have stopped him from making it to the semifinal was the former US open champion Del Potro, but luckily for the Scot, he was ousted in the third round itself. That’s all Andy needed to book a semifinal date with the four-time Australian open Champion, Roger Federer. The Brit was destined to be a spoiled child till the semifinals as he was not at all tested in any of the earlier rounds. So there was always a doubt about his match toughness as he confronted the Swiss Maestro in a quest to reach his third Australian Open final. But fresh from his maiden Grand Slam victory last year, Murray’s determination seems to have grown manifold as he played the best offensive tennis we have ever seen from him, attacking the World No. 2 Swiss right from the word go. Though it took him five sets to overcome the Swiss, he always looked to be the likely winner right from the start.

So it is official. On Super Sunday, it is going to be Andy Murray who will be locking horns with Novak Djokovic. On the same surface last year, both these players fought a physically gruesome battle in the second semifinal which could have easily gone either way. Back then, it was Novak who eventually prevailed. However, the situation has drastically changed over the last year. Both the athletes have, since then, added many new weapons to their arsenal. While Nole’s return has improved considerably, Murray’s forehand has become extremely lethal. Similarly, if Nole scores over the Scot as far as baseline defense is concerned, Murray has a slight edge over the former in his service games. In short, although there is not much to choose between the two, it has to be said – being the fittest of all players – Nole might just be able to beat the Brit.

Let us have a detailed look at some of the important facets of their game before deciding who would, in all probability, go on to win tomorrow’s big final.

Service Return:

The last time we saw them trading baseline exchanges ruthlessly was during the finals of the Shanghai Masters. In the first set, we saw as many as seven service breaks, something we are not used to seeing often in men’s tennis. This was possible only because both possess punishing returns, which help them to break each other’s serves on a regular basis. Murray would probably be able to earn free points sporadically, as his wider serves in the deuce court have become more consistent as compared to last year; but the Serb can be equal to the task by pulling out some unimaginable returns. The match will reach a break-even point if both the players come up with the good returns that they are known for. So it is difficult to pick one over the other considering this aspect of the game.

Serve:

Murray has the advantage in service games

Andy has been an underrated server for quite some time now and it is time for him to show what difference he can make by getting his first serves in. He can frustrate the Serb whenever he is down break point by serving unreturnable serves, something he seems to be capable of doing consistently. He can also outdo the World No.1 in the ace count and, in fact, even bettered Federer in this area yesterday. Nole also is a decent server, but is not good enough to maintain consistency and so the Scot can capitalize on his occasional loose serves. Purely on service games, Murray is likely to be the winner.

Unforced errors:
Djokovic has always been a shaky starter in most of his matches against the top four. During that phase, he makes more unforced errors than his opponents. As far as tomorrow’s final is concerned, since Andy has become more offensive of late, it seems likely that the numbers against the Serb’s UFEs column would increase slightly. But once Novak gets back to his rhythm, he will start to win more points in rallies and Murray’s game may start to fade in the process. So it is imperative for Andy to win the first two sets or at least the first one when Djokovic looks out of sorts. If the duration of the match increases, Andy would start making more errors and then Novak would be virtually unstoppable. In this area, the Serb has an advantage over his arch rival.

Offense and Defense:
In the last game, Murray amassed as many as 61 winners in comparison to Federer’s 43, considerably outscoring the former World no. 1. This shows the type of attacking tennis Murray has been playing of late. Working with Ivan Lendl, he has improved his offensive strategy considerably. Djoker can also be extremely vicious at times in attacking his adversaries, but Andy looks to be slightly better in this aspect. However, Nole has been supreme when it comes to defense, especially on slow hardcourts, and he also possesses the uncanny knack of switching over from defense to offense out of nowhere. Therefore, though Andy is predominantly more offensive, overall it is the Serb’s game which has the right blend of offense and defense. So I rank Novak over Andy here.

Forehand:

Djokovic will dominate with his fierce forehands

Though there is not much to choose between them as far as their backhand goes, Nole looks to be slightly better with his forehand than Murray. Since he was forced to use strong crosscourt forehands frequently to test the Rafael Nadal backhand, he seems to have mastered this shot. Among the current players, only Nadal and Federer seem to have a better forehand than that of the Serb. Andy is no mug with this shot either, but he has not started hitting it with the same regularity as the World No. 1 Serb. If there is a continuous exchange of forehands between the two, Nole will likely reign supreme on a majority of the occasions.

Net game:
In this era, where most of the players are content playing from the baseline and getting involving in slugfests, the net game seems to be a forgotten art. However, Murray has been constantly showing keen interest in learning the net game and seems to excel in it as well. He is winning more points at the net and is even prepared to leave the baseline whenever given a chance. Nole, on the other hand, has been reluctant to approach the net unless invited, and this is one of the areas where he needs improvement. Murray has a clear edge over the Serb here.

Overall, if you dissect their games, analyzing every aspect, Nole seems to be a better player. But that does not mean victory is guaranteed because, on a given day, Andy can beat anyone. Apart from being equipped with a better game, Djokovic looks to be mentally tougher than the Scot. Nonetheless, tomorrow’s final has the potential to go right down the wire and no matter whoever wins, the game would eventually be the winner.

Prediction: Winner – Novak Djokovic in four sets. If Murray takes the first set, then it might take five sets for Nole to complete the formalities.