ATP Finals 2024: Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud SF qualification scenarios as Andrey Rublev is almost eliminated
All four players in the John Newcombe Group, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud, and Andrey Rublev, have varying degrees of odds of qualifying for the semifinals of the ATP Finals 2024. Out of these four, the Russian is in the most precarious position after losing both of his group ties.
Rublev has only one way to advance to the last four, and even that's a long shot. He needs to beat Ruud in their final group tie in straight sets, and hope that Zverev beats Alcaraz in straight sets as well. In this scenario, the German wins the group, and the second player will be determined on the basis of the percentage of games won.
Zverev is in the best position out of all players as he has won both of his matches in straight sets so far, followed by Ruud and Alcaraz. Including the above scenario, there are seven possibilities in which the German tops the group. If he wins against Alcaraz, and Ruud defeats Rublev, then he tops the group.
Conversely, if Alcaraz beats Zverev, and Rublev comes out on top against Ruud, then Zverev still makes it out of the group stage, albeit in second place. If the German wins his match in two sets, and the Russian wins his match in two sets as well, then the former tops the group again, and the Norwegian comes in second place.
If Zverev bests Alcaraz in three sets, and Rublev does the same against Ruud, then the German wins the group, and the Spaniard will take the second spot. For the four-time Major champion, the road to the semifinal is rather tough.
Carlos Alcaraz faces an uphill battle to qualify for the semifinals of the ATP Finals
Alcaraz's straight-sets loss to Ruud put a dampener on his chances of qualifying for the semifinals of the ATP Finals 2024. He kept himself in contention with a win over Rublev but with the in-form Zverev being his next opponent, it won't be an easy task.
If Alcaraz beats Zverev in straight sets, and Ruud replicates the feat against Rublev, then the Russian is eliminated. The other players will be tied with two wins apiece, and whoever has the favorable record in terms of percentage of games won, makes the cut for the semifinals.
If Alcaraz scores a straight-sets win, and Ruud needs three sets to oust Rublev, then the Spaniard tops the group, and Zverev comes in second. If the 21-year-old needs three sets to beat the German, and the Norwegian gets the job done in straight sets, then the Spanish youngster is out of the ATP Finals.
Lastly, if Alcaraz beats Zverev in three sets, and Ruud gets the job done in three sets as well, then the Spaniard has no shot of qualifying despite winning his match. The ideal scenario for him would be to win his match in straight sets, and for Ruud to win his match in three sets.