Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner: predicting who will do better in 2025
The 2024 ATP season was marked by the rise of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner as two of the dominant forces in men's tennis. While the Spaniard finished the year with four titles, including Two Major titles, the Italian finished the season as the World No. 1, winning two Major titles and eight titles overall. Given the overall results, it is the Italian who is poised to have a better 2025 season.
These two young players have been at the forefront of the new generation of players who have taken the mantle of men's tennis from the old guard. With the notable exception of Andy Murray in 2016, Alcaraz and Sinner are the only two players who have captured the year-end No. 1 ranking outside of the Big Three since 2004. The young Spaniard finished the 2022 season as the World No. 1.
The two players were locked in an intense contest thrice in the 2024 season. Two of them were best-of-three set matches at the Miami Open (semifinal), and the China Open (final), and one was a best-of-five-set match at the French Open (semifinal). The World No. 3 won all three times.
The pair met for a fourth time at an exhibition event in Saudi Arabia. Sinner won that battle but it was not counted in their official head-to-head.
What pips Jannik Sinner ahead of Carlos Alcaraz to have better results in 2025?
Even though Carlos Alcaraz dominated the individual rivalry against Jannik Sinner in 2024, the Italian showed a higher level of consistency. This will hold him in good stead in 2025 as well, and give him an edge over his Spanish opponent.
As per ATP metrics, Sinner was the most complete player in 2024. In terms of serving, returning, and playing the pressure points, the World No. 1 was in the Top 5 of every category, topping the charts in case of pressure points.
On the other hand, Alcaraz was second in terms of return points stats, while the Spaniard was ninth in terms of pressure points played in the season. But what is most concerning is that based on the serving metrics of 2024, the World No. 3 is outside of the Top 10.
Sinner lost only six of the 79 matches he played in 2024. Alcaraz lost more than double the matches, ending the season with a 54-13 record. Even though it will be difficult for Sinner to replicate this level of consistency in 2024, the Italian will be less likely to lose to lower-ranked opponents in the early round of tournaments due to his serving accuracy and ability to play the pressure points.
Alcaraz has tended to be erratic in the latter half of the season, losing to lower-ranked opponents like Botic Van de Zandschulp, Gael Monfils, and Tomas Machac.
However, with the ax of the WADA appeal hanging over his head, it will be interesting to see if Sinner can keep the off-court controversies away from the game.