China Open 2024: Women's singles draw analysis, preview & prediction ft. potential Coco Gauff-Jelena Ostapenko QF, Aryna Sabalenka-Jessica Pegula final
The women's singles draw for the 2024 China Open (September 25-October 6) was unveiled on Monday, September 23. We are in for a week of high-octane tennis action.
Reigning US Open champion Aryna Sabalenka is the top seed at the WTA 1000 tournament in Beijing, following the withdrawal of World No. 1 Iga Swiatek. The Pole stepped back due to "personal matters."
Jessica Pegula, Jasmine Paolini, Coco Gauff, and Zheng Qinwen round up the top five seeds. Each of these players poses a significant challenge for Sabalenka as she aims for her fourth title of the season.
There are many exciting first-round matches lined up, including Karolina Muchova vs Anna Blinkova, Naomi Osaka vs Lucia Bronzetti, Sloane Stephens vs Katie Volynets, Sofia Kenin vs Ana Bogdan, and Amanda Anisimova vs Wang Xinyu, among others.
With that in mind, let's dive into how the women's singles draw of the 2024 China Open might unfold over the next few days.
Top Half: Aryna Sabalenka, Jasmine Paolini, Karolina Muchova, & Zheng Qinwen make for interesting draw
Seeded Players: (1) Aryna Sabalenka, (3) Jasmine Paolini, (5) Zheng Qinwen, (7) Barbora Krejcikova, (9) Daria Kasatkina, (11) Liudmila Samsonova, (13) Beatriz Haddad Maia, (16) Donna Vekic, (17) Mirra Andreeva, (18) Madison Keys, (19) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, (24) Elise Mertens, (25) Dayana Yastremska, (29) Lulu Sun, (30) Yuan Yue, (31) Magda Linette
Expected Semifinal: Aryna Sabalenka vs Zheng Qinwen
Dark Horse: Karolina Muchova
Analysis: Top seed Aryna Sabalenka is in this half of the draw and will begin her campaign in the second round, where she will face a qualifier, having received a first-round bye.
The Belarusian is having perhaps the best season of her career in 2024, having won four titles, including two Grand Slams at the Australian Open and the US Open. She now has a golden opportunity to move closer to becoming the World No. 1 again by winning the title, toppling her arch-rival Iga Swiatek.
In the following round, Sabalenka could face 29th seed Lulu Sun or Ashlyn Krueger, setting up a potential fourth-round clash against either 18th seed Madison Keys or 13th seed Beatriz Haddad Maia.
Sabalenka might face seventh seed Barbora Krejcikova or 2024 US Open semifinalist Karolina Muchova in the quarterfinals. While she is favored to advance to the semifinals, Muchova could pose a formidable challenge.
The other side of the draw features in-form players such as third seed Jasmine Paolini, Paris Olympics gold medalist Zheng Qinwen, silver medalist Donna Vekic, and former Grand Slam champion Emma Raducanu, among others. While players like Ajla Tomljanovic, Harriet Dart, and Camila Osorio could present challenges, a semifinal clash between Aryna Sabalenka and either Zheng Qinwen or Jasmine Paolini is highly likely.
Predicting the winner is certainly challenging, but the odds may lean towards Sabalenka. She holds a 3-0 head-to-head advantage against Zheng, having most recently defeated her in the quarterfinals of the US Open. Meanwhile, she has faced Paolini four times on tour, with each winning two matches.
Given the former World No. 1's recent performance, especially after overcoming a shoulder injury that sidelined her from Wimbledon, it's clear there are few players better positioned to secure a spot in the final of the 2024 China Open.
Semifinal Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka def. Zheng Qinwen
Bottom Half: Coco Gauff, Naomi Osaka, Jessica Pegula, and Emma Navarro form star-studded lineup
Seeded Players: (2) Jessica Pegula, (4) Coco Gauff, (6) Emma Navarro, (8) Jelena Ostapenko, (10) Anna Kalinskaya, (12) Diana Shnaider, (14) Marta Kostyuk, (15) Paula Badosa, (20) Leylah Fernandez, (21) Yulia Putintseva, (22) Ekaterina Alexandrova, (23) Magdalena Frech, (26) Katie Boulter, (27) Katerina Siniakova, (28) Anastasia Potapova, (32) Veronika Kudermetova
Expected Semifinal: Jessica Pegula vs Jelena Ostapenko
Dark Horse: Naomi Osaka
Analysis: This half of the draw features second seed and 2024 US Open finalist Jessica Pegula, who will begin her campaign in the second round against either a qualifier or Diane Parry, thanks to a first-round bye.
The American has been in great form lately, and she should be able to navigate past the likes of Veronika Kudermetova and Paula Badosa to secure a spot in the quarterfinals of the China Open.
Here, Pegula could likely face fellow American Emma Navarro, who enters Beijing following a semifinal finish at Flushing Meadows. While former Grand Slam champion Sofia Kenin, McCartney Kessler, and Greet Minnen are also potential opponents, a matchup with any of them seems less likely.
If Pegula plays at her best, she should be able to handle the challenge posed by Navarro and advance to the semifinals.
The other side of the half features five strong seeds: Jelena Ostapenko, Coco Gauff, Leylah Fernandez, Anna Kalinskaya, and Marta Kostyuk. While all are formidable players, a potential quarterfinal clash between Gauff and Ostapenko looms, with the Latvian likely securing a spot in the last four.
Pegula and Ostapenko have faced each other five times on the WTA Tour, with the former holding a 3-2 head-to-head advantage. When comparing their current forms, all signs point to the World No. 3 being the favorite to advance to the final, where she may face Aryna Sabalenka.
Semifinal Prediction: Jessica Pegula def. Jelena Ostapenko
China Open 2024: Final prediction
Jessica Pegula def. Aryna Sabalenka