Djokovic at No. 1, Rublev at No. 3, Federer outside top 10 - how the rankings would've looked in traditional system

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Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic at the 2021 Australian Open

If the ATP and WTA tours had been using the traditional ranking system right now, Novak Djokovic have continued to occupy the No. 1 spot but the women's ace would have been Naomi Osaka instead of Ashleigh Barty. There would have also been big differences in the rest of the top 10, as per a recent study by Tennis.com.

When tennis returned after a five-month COVID-enforced shutdown last August, one of the major dilemmas faced by the tours was the ranking system. With many tournaments cancelled and many players not wanting to travel in the midst of the pandemic, the ATP and WTA tours put in place a revised ranking system that did not penalize players for failing to defend their points from 2019.

As with any forced change, there have been some unintended beneficiaries of the revised system. Players who did not compete due to injury (such as Roger Federer) or other personal reasons (non-pandemic related) have also been able to hold on to their points from 2019, thus unjustifiably boosting their ranking.

Measured words from Denis Shapovalov on the pros & cons of the revised ranking system currently in place:

"I was amazed Rublev has won like 25 500s & he hasn’t been able to climb so much. In one sense, it’s good you’re not dropping but on the other it’s difficult to climb." pic.twitter.com/AUupUbTY1I

— Reem Abulleil (@ReemAbulleil) March 17, 2021

The revised system has also made it tougher for players who have done well in recent months to climb up the rankings. And arguably the best example of that is Andrey Rublev.

The Russian currently sits at No. 8 in the rankings, despite winning four ATP 500 titles, reaching three Slam quarterfinals and lifting the ATP Cup with Russia over the past few months.

Andrey Rublev weighs in on Zverev's criticism of Roger Federer's ranking, says he himself would've been No. 4 in normal system https://t.co/mx7G0LHZYa

— Sportskeeda Tennis (@SK__Tennis) March 16, 2021

That has prompted many to wonder what the current rankings would look like if the tours switched back to the old 52-week rolling system. And according to Tennis.com, while Novak Djokovic and Danill Medvedev would still remain No. 1 and 2 respectively, Rublev would climb up to No. 3.

US Open champion Dominic Thiem would retain his No. 4 ranking, but Rafael Nadal would drop out of the top four and occupy the fifth spot.

Canada's Milos Raonic would be ranked No. 9, which is 10 spots higher than his current ranking. And Pablo Carenno Busta would round off the top 10, putting him five spots higher than his actual spot.

Not surprisingly, the two players who would drop out of the top 10 would be Roger Federer and Matteo Berretinini. Both of them have been dealing with injuries over the past year, and haven't played nearly as much as the rest of the players.

Australian Open semifinaist Aslan Karatsev and Italian teenager Jannik Sinner, two of the most in-from players since the resumption, would be ranked No. 11 (current rank No. 42) and No. 12 (current rank No. 32) respectively.

Here is a look at what the ATP top 10 would have looked like with their 52-week points. (The actual rankings of the players, and their points accumulated as per the revised pandemic system, have been mentioned at the end of each line).

1. Novak Djokovic - 5,830 points - No. 1 (12,008 points)
2. Daniil Medvedev (5,495 points) - No. 2 (9,940 points)
3. Andrey Rublev (3,825 points) - No. 8 (5,011 points)
4. Dominic Thiem (3,535 points) - No. 4, (8,625 points)
5. Rafael Nadal (3,300 points) - No. 3 (9,670 points)
6. Alexander Zverev (3,115 points) - No. 7 (5,635 points)
7. Stefanos Tsitsipas (2,795 points) - No. 5 (6,765 points)
8. Diego Schwartzman (2,210 points) - No. 9 (3,640 points)
9. Milos Raonic (1,505 points) - No. 19 (2,450 points)
10. Pablo Carreno Busta (1,500 points) - No. 15 (2,630 points)

Naomi Osaka would be ranked No. 1 as per the traditional WTA ranking system, Ashleigh Barty would be outside the top 10

Naomi Osaka and Victoria Azarenka at the 2020 US Open

On the women's side, it comes as no surprise that Noami Osaka, who has won two of the last three Majors while going unbeaten since the tour resumption, would be ranked No. 1. Ashleigh Barty, the current World No. 1, would not feature in the top 10 as per the rolling-points system.

The top 5 in the women's rankings would see a major shake-up if the previous ranking system was in effect. US Open runner-up Victoria Azarenka would be ranked No. 2, followed by French Open champion Iga Swiatek, Australian Open runner-up Jennifer Brady, Belgium's Elise Mertens and Spain's Garbine Muguruza. None of these players are in the top 12 as per the current revised system.

Somona Halep, the current World No. 3, and Sofia Kenin, the current World No. 4, would drop to No. 9 and No. 10 respectively.

Here is a look at what the WTA top 10 would have looked like with their 52-week points. (The actual rankings of the players, and their points accumulated as per the revised pandemic system, have been mentioned at the end of each line).

1. Naomi Osaka (4,770 points) - No. 2 (7,835 points)
2. Victoria Azarenka (3,061 points) - No. 15 (3,665 points)
3. Iga Swiatek (3,002 points) - No. 16 (3,570 points)
4. Jennifer Brady (2,743 points) - No. 14 (3,765 points)
5. Elise Mertens (2,621 points) - No. 17 (3,310 points)
6. Garbine Muguruza (2,355 points) - No. 13 (4,235 points)
7. Aryna Sabalenka (2,097 points) - No. 8 (4,815 points)
8. Serena Williams (1,980 points) - No. 7 (4,915 points)
9. Simona Halep (1,950 points) - No. 3 (7,255 points)
10. Sofia Kenin (1,813 points) - No. 4 (5,760 points)

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