Explained: Scenarios for the Australian Open draw depending on what happens with Novak Djokovic's visa
The draw for the Australian Open has finally been released and several interesting match-ups await the fans. Novak Djokovic has provisionally been allotted the No. 1 seed in the men's singles draw. However, there is no guarantee that the Serb will be able to play in the tournament.
Australian Open men’s singles draw (pdf view) https://t.co/HBmZTOOQ8V
Immigration Minister Alex Hawke's decision on whether he is going to cancel the 34-year-old's visa and deport him from the country is still pending and can be expected in the next few days.
Immigration Minister @AlexHawkeMP will not be making a decision tonight on whether to cancel Novak Djokovic’s visa as the saga drags into its seventh day. A federal source confirmed Mr Hawke is still considering the matter | @Gallo_Ways #novak #ausopen
theage.com.au/sport/tennis/n…
So how does that affect the draw?
There are three possible scenarios to consider:
#1 If Novak Djokovic is forced to withdraw before the first day's order of play is announced
If Novak Djokovic is deported from Australia between now and the release of the order of play for the first day of the event (January 17), the fifth seed Andrey Rublev will be moved into Djokovic's vacant spot. Following that, 17th seed Gael Monfils will take Rublev's place.
If Djokovic pulls out after #AusOpen draw but before Day 1 order of play is released, #5 Andrey Rublev would be moved to Line 1 of draw to take Djokovic's slot. #17 Gael Monfils would move onto Rublev's line, and Alexander Bublik would become #33 seed and move onto Monfils' line.
World No. 35 Alexander Bublik will be promoted to replace Gael Monfils in the draw.
As of now, the Serb is scheduled to play kecmanovic" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-is-sponsored="false">Miomir Kecmanovic in the first round of the Australian Open and Rublev faces off against Gianluca Mager in his first-round fixture.
Deportation for the World No. 1 will lead to Rublev playing Kecmanovic in the first round and Mager playing against Monfils. Federico Coria, who is expected to play Monfils, will face off against Bublik instead.
@DjokerNole begins his title defence against Miomir Kecmanovic.
Top seed and nine-time #AusOpen champion 🇷🇸 @DjokerNole begins his title defence against Miomir Kecmanovic.
#AO2022 https://t.co/96MAlHNElG
Djokovic's expected quarterfinal opponent is World No. 7 Matteo Berrettini, and World No. 2 Daniil Medvedev is expected to come up against Rublev in the last eight. In the event the Serb is deported before the announcement, the quarterfinal matchup could become Monfils vs Medvedev and Rublev vs Berrettini.
#2 If Novak Djokovic is forced to withdraw after the first day's order of play is announced
If the World No. 1 is deported from Australia after the first day's order of play is announced, there will be no tinkering with the seeds. Instead, a lucky loser will be chosen at random from those who lost in the final round of qualifying to replace the the Serb in the draw.
If Djokovic pulls out after the #AusOpen Day 1 order of play is released, he would be replaced on Line 1 of the draw by a lucky loser who loses in the final round of qualifying.
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#3 If Novak Djokovic is forced to withdraw after the tournament has begun
If the Serb is deported from Australia after one or more matches are played, then no player can replace him. Whoever is drawn to play the Serb after that will merely get a walkover into the next round.
And, of course, if Djokovic takes court at the #AusOpen for any of his matches, he would continue in the tournament until he is pulled out, loses, or wins the thing.
He would not be replaced mid-tournament; his next opponent would simply be given a walkover into the next round.
If no decision arrives, the 20-time Grand Slam champion will simply keep progressing in the tournament as long as he keeps winning.