French Open 2024 Draw: Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to final ft. potential SF clash vs Jannik Sinner
Despite being handed a relatively tough path to the 2024 French Open final, Carlos Alcaraz remains a firm favorite for the crown. The draw was made public on Thursday, May 23.
Alcaraz hasn't had the greatest start to 2024, having spent a large chunk of it on the sidelines due to a shoulder injury. Bar his title run in Indian Wells, the Spaniard hasn't had too much else to celebrate. He's only taken part at the Madrid Open in the claycourt swing and is set to return to action in the French capital. He currently holds an 18-5 match record this year and will be eager to improve it in the next few weeks.
His best result yet at the French Open was his semifinal run last year where he succumbed to Novak Djokovic in four sets. Slated to open his campaign against a qualifier this time, here's a look at his run to a first-ever French Open final:
Carlos Alcaraz's R1 opponent - Qualifier/Lucky Loser
Carlos Alcaraz's quest for a first French Open title will begin against a qualifier or lucky loser. He will find out who his opponent is after the conclusion of the qualifying rounds on Friday, May 24.
Carlos Alcaraz's likely R2 opponent - Jack Draper
Carlos Alcaraz could come up against Jack Draper in the second round should both of them win their openers.
Draper has a 13-10 match record in 2024, with his best results yet being a semi-final run at the Mexican Open and a quarter-final run at the Bavarian Open in Munich. He's recorded impressive wins over Tommy Paul and Borna Coric so far this year and will be eager to cause another upset in Paris.
Draper has failed to beat Alcaraz on the two occasions they have met in the past. They last played at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells last year, which Alcaraz won 6-2, 2-0, after Draper was forced to retire with an injury.
Carlos Alcaraz's likely R3 opponent - Sebastian Korda
Twenty-seventh seed Sebastian Korda is likely to cross paths with Carlos Alcaraz in the third round.
Korda has had a disappointing 2024 and is yet to make it to the semifinal of an event this year. His best finish yet was a quarterfinal run in Dubai where he lost to Andrey Rublev. He's also struggled to find his feet on the clay so far this year, having won just 3 matches and lost as many on it. He holds an overall 13-12 match record this year.
Korda and Alcaraz have faced off four times on tour, with Alcaraz leading their head-to-head 3-1. The last played in Queens last year, with Alcaraz winning that match 6-3, 6-4.
Emil Ruusuvuori is another likely third-round opponent for Alcaraz should Korda not make it through.
Carlos Alcaraz's likely R4 opponent - Ben Shelton or Felix Auger-Aliassime
Awaiting Carlos Alcaraz in the fourth round could be either Ben Shelton or Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Ben Shelton has had a pretty good 2024, having won the title in Houston and reaching the last four in Auckland and Dallas. His form of late, however, has been a cause for concern. He lost in his Geneva opener recently to Flavio Cobolli. He didn't fare much better in Madrid or Italy, losing in the third round in both to Alexander Bublik and Zhang.
Auger-Aliassime, meanwhile, brushed off an indifferent start to the season with a runner-up finish to Andrey Rublev in Madrid. He also made the quarters at the Bavarian Open in Munich. Currently on a 17-12 match record this season and at the 21st spot in the rankings, Auger-Aliassime will be keen to turn his fortunes on his favored clay courts in Paris.
Alcaraz has won the only encounter between him and Shelton in the past, and trails Auger-Aliassime in their head-to-head 2-3. He has, however, won their last two encounters, both in Indian Wells incidentally.
Carlos Alcaraz's likely QF opponent - Andrey Rublev
Carlos Alcaraz could face Andrey Rublev in a blockbuster quarterfinal clash should both of them move safely through.
Rublev has blown hot and cold this season but has already picked up two titles to his credit. His first came at the start of the season in Hong Kong where he brushed aside Emil Ruusuvuori en route to his 15th career title. He won his second Master 1000 title in Madrid, beating the likes of Tallon Griekspoor, Carlos Alcaraz, Taylor Fritz, and Feliz Auger-Aliassime in the final. He heads into Paris with a 22-9 match record and renewed hope after his Madrid triumph. Yet to make it past the quarterfinals in a Grand Slam in his previous 10 opportunities, Rublev will be hoping this is his chance.
Rublev and Alcaraz split their head-to-head 1-1, with the Russian winning their last match-up in the quarterfinals of the Madrid Open earlier this year.
Carlos Alcaraz's likely SF opponent - Jannik Sinner
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner could lock horns in a highly anticipated last-four clash should they both move safely through.
Sinner had a dream start to the 2024 season, winning his first Grand Slam title in Australia, and then backing it up with the crowns in Rotterdam and Miami. He has since blown cold primarily due to a hip injury that forced him to pull out mid-way through the Madrid Open.
He is currently on an impressive 28-2 W/L record this season and at a career-high No. 2 in the men's rankings.
Alcaraz and Sinner split their head-to-head equally with 4 wins a piece. In what is rapidly becoming a rivalry to watch out for, both players have almost always engaged in epics. Alcaraz won their last encounter in Indian Wells earlier this year. Sinner, however, has won their only meeting on clay, beating Alcaraz in a three-set epic at the 2022 Umag final.
Other possible semifinal opponents for Alcaraz include Hubert Hurkacz, Alejandro Tabilo, and Grigor Dimitrov should Sinner stumble early.
Carlos Alcaraz's likely final opponent - Novak Djokovic
All roads could lead to a blockbuster final between Carlos Alcaraz and World No. 1 Novak Djokovic should everything go according to the plan for the pair.
Despite Djokovic not being at his best this season, he is still widely expected to make the finals based on his experience and big-match pedigree. Yet to win a title on tour this season, Djokovic will be eager to shift the momentum his way as he aims to capture a fourth French Open title.
He's currently taking part in the Geneva Open and has successfully made it through to the last four. Capturing the title could just give him the much-needed impetus to win his record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title.
Djokovic edges his head-to-head with Alcaraz 3-2, and comfortably won their last encounter in the semi-finals of the 2023 ATP finals. They faced off in the semi-finals of the French Open last year, with Djokovic winning that encounter in four sets 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1.
Other possible finals opponents should Djokovic not make it through include the in-form Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud, and Daniil Medvedev.