Indian Wells 2024 Draw: Rafael Nadal's projected path to final ft. potential SF clash vs Novak Djokovic
Rafael Nadal returned to action at the Brisbane International earlier this year following a 12-month hiatus due to injuries.
He made a promising start, winning his opening two matches against Dominic Thiem and Jason Kubler, both in straight sets. His quarterfinal encounter against Jordan Thompson didn't quite go to plan, suffering a micro-tear in his left leg during the defeat, ultimately having to withdraw from the Australian Open and the Qatar Open.
A three-time former champion in the Californian desert, the Spaniard will be raring to get back into the thick of things and get some vital match practice ahead of what looks like his last-ever clay court swing on the ATP tour.
So, without further ado, here's a look at Nadal's projected path to the 2024 BNP Paribas Open final:
Rafael Nadal's 1R opponent - Milos Raonic
Rafael Nadal will start his BNP Paribas Open campaign against former World No. 3 Milos Raonic. The Canadian began the season at the Australian Open, where he was forced to retire during his first-round match-up against home favorite Alex de Minaur.
Raonic played at the Rotterdam Open a couple of weeks ago, where he beat Jesper De Jong and eighth seed Alexander Bublik en route to the quarterfinals. He suffered another injury during his quarterfinal encounter against Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner, which prompted him to retire once again.
Nadal has played Raonic 10 times on tour, and currently leads their head-to-head 8-2. He won their last meeting at the Laver Cup 6-3, 7-6(1). Raonic, however, has won their only previous meeting in Indian Wells, winning 4-6, 7-6(10), 7-5 in the 2015 quarterfinals.
Rafael Nadal's likely 2R opponent - Holger Rune
Rafael Nadal will face Holger Rune in a mouth-watering second-round clash in Indian Wells if he beats Milos Raonic in his first match.
The 20-year-old Dane began the season well, reaching the final of the Brisbane International. The current World No. 7 then suffered a shock defeat in the second round of the Australian Open to fellow youngster Arthur Cazaux of France.
Rune has since reached the semi-finals at the Open Sud de France and the Mexican Open, losing to Borna Coric and Casper Ruud, respectively. Nadal and Rune are yet to face off on tour and this could very well prove to be a thrilling opening encounter.
Rafael Nadal's likely 3R opponent - Lorenzo Musetti
Rafael Nadal will likely face another tricky test at the BNP Paribas Open against World No. 26 Lorenzo Musetti in a possible third-round encounter.
Musetti's 2024 campaign is yet to take off. He began the year in Hong Kong, losing in the round of 16 to Pavel Kotov. Seeded fourth at the Adelaide International the following week, he lost in the quarterfinals to eighth seed Alexander Bublik.
Seeded 25th heading into the Australian Open, Musetti recorded a first-round win against Benjamin Bonzi but lost in the following round to Luca Van Assche in a five-set epic. He then reached the round of 16 at the Open 13 in Marseille, losing to Tomas Machac.
The Italian has since failed to move past the first round of every tournament he has played in, losing to Tallon Griekspoor in Rotterdam, Zhang Zhizhen in Qatar, and Arthur Cazaux in Dubai.
Nadal and Musetti too haven't yet faced off on tour, and their head-to-head currently stands at 0-0.
Rafael Nadal's likely 4R opponent - Taylor Fritz
Rafael Nadal will lock horns with Taylor Fritz in the fourth round should both players move safely through.
Fritz, ranked No. 12 in the world, began his 2024 campaign at the Australian Open. He defeated seventh seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the fourth round en route to a quarterfinal clash against World No. 1 Novak Djokovic. Despite a spirited effort, the American ultimately went down 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-2, 6-3.
Fritz lifted the title in Delray Beach a couple of weeks ago, beating good friend and compatriot Tommy Paul in the final. He then suffered a shock defeat at the hands of Matteo Arnaldi in the first round of the Mexican Open.
Nadal and Fritz have faced off four times on tour, and their head-to-head is evenly split. Fritz won their last contest in the round-robin of the 2022 ATP Finals in straight sets.
The American also won their only match in the Californian desert, famously defeating Nadal 6-3, 7-6(5) in the final of the 2022 edition to win his first Masters 1000 event of his career.
Rafael Nadal's likely QF opponent - Daniil Medvedev
Rafael Nadal could set up a mega quarterfinal encounter against world No. 4 Daniil Medvedev.
Medvedev began the season by finishing runner-up to Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open. The Russian took the early lead, efficiently winning the first two sets. A spirited comeback from the 22-year-old Italian in the next three sets handed him his fifth defeat in six Grand Slam finals.
Medvedev took some time off following the defeat citing fatigue and a right foot injury. He pulled out of the Rotterdam and Qatar tournaments where he was the defending champion. He made his comeback in Dubai, where he was also defending winners points. He, however, fell in the semifinals 7-5, 6-3, to Ugo Humbert.
Nadal currently leads his head-to-head 5-1 against Medvedev. The Spaniard won the last encounter between them in the semifinals of the 2022 Acapulco Open. Nadal also famously beat Medvedev from two sets down in the 2022 Australian Open final to capture the trophy for just the second time in his career.
Rafael Nadal's likely SF opponent - Novak Djokovic
Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic could face off for a record 60th time should they both proceed safely through to the last four.
The World No. 1 is coming off a record-breaking 2023 season that saw him lift his 24th Grand Slam title, complete the triple Career Slam, and win a record seventh Year-end championship.
Djokovic walked into the Australian Open as the defending champion, having not lost a single match at the event in more than six years. He, however, fell prey to Sinner's brilliance in the semi-finals, losing 6-1, 6-2, 6-7(6), 6-3.
Djokovic hasn't played ever since and has been photographed enjoying time off the court. He marginally leads his head-to-head with Nadal 30-29.
The Spaniard, however, won their last encounter 6-2, 4-6, 6-2, 7-6(4) in the French Open quarterfinals back in 2022. They've met each other four times in the Californian desert, with Djokovic leading 3-1.
In what would be a match for the ages, fans could be in for something special considering it could very well be Nadal's last-ever appearance here in California.
Rafael Nadal's likely finals opponent - Carlos Alcaraz/Jannik Sinner
Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner could await Rafael Nadal in the finals of the BNP Paribas Open, should they manage to proceed to the finals.
Touted as the future of the sport, Alcaraz and Sinner have had contrasting starts to the 2024 campaign. The World No. 2 Alcaraz suffered a quarterfinal defeat in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open to sixth seed Alexander Zverev.
Entering the Argentinian Open as the defending champion, Alcaraz lost in the semifinals to Nicolas Jarry. He retired hurt due to an ankle injury from his first-round encounter in Rio against Thiago Monteiro.
Nadal and Alcaraz have met thrice on tour, with the senior pro leading 2-1. Alcaraz, however, won their last encounter 6-2, 1-6, 6-3 in the quarterfinals of the Madrid Masters.
Sinner, meanwhile, began his 2024 with a bang, capturing the first Grand Slam of his career at the Australian Open. He powered back from two sets down to become the first Italian man to win a Grand Slam since 1976. Sinner won the Rotterdam Open a couple of weeks back, beating Alex de Minaur 7-5, 6-4, in the final.
Nadal currently leads their head-to-head 3-0. They last played at the 2021 French Open where Nadal won 7-5, 6-3, 6-0 in the round of 16.
Whoever should proceed to the finals, the sheer prospect of matches like these is what dreams are made of for tennis fans.