Indian Wells 2025 Draw: Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to final ft. potential QF clash vs Novak Djokovic | BNP Paribas Open
The Masters 1000 season on the ATP calendar is set to begin with the BNP Paribas Open, scheduled to run from March 3 to March 16. The draw (which came out on March 3) will give players and audiences an idea of what the fixtures might look like.
Two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is looking to be the third male player after Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic to complete a hat trick of titles in the Californian desert. The Spaniard has an 89 percent win ratio at Indian Wells and has only faced two losses so far in his career.
Being the second seed, Alcaraz will get an opening-round bye at the 2025 BNP Paribas Open. Let's look at the potential opponents he has to face to reach a third consecutive final.
Carlos Alcaraz's potential 2R opponent- Quentin Halys
Alcaraz's probable opponent in the second round of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open will be Quentin Halys. The Frenchman is coming into the event on the back of a phenomenal run at the Dubai Tennis Championships, where he reached the semifinals as a qualifier. He defeated the likes of Andrey Rublev, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Luca Nardi to reach the final four. He lost to Felix Auger-Aliassime in three sets.
Alcaraz and Halys have yet to meet each other on the Tour, but given the Spaniard's record here, he should be able to move forward in the next round.
Carlos Alcaraz's potential 3R opponent- Denis Shapovalov
Alcaraz might have a potential battle against 27th-seeded Denis Shapovalov in the third round of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open. Shapovalov has been one of the most in-form players in 2025. The Canadian won a title at the Dallas Open, overcoming top players like Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, and Casper Ruud.
The Canadian also had an excellent Mexican Open campaign in Acapulco, where he reached the semifinal. He lost to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in straight sets.
Alcaraz has won the only match he has played against Shapovalov. The duo have met only once on the Tour, with the Spaniard winning the match 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 at the 2023 French Open.
Carlos Alcaraz's potential 4R opponent- Grigor Dimitrov
Alcaraz might face 14th-seeded Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round at the BNP Paribas Open. The Bulgarian had a good time at the Brisbane International, where he had to retire against Jiri Lehecka in the semifinal. Dimitrov's fitness has been a concern this season, as the former top 10 player already has three retirements in 2025, including his last match against Christopher O'Connell in Dubai.
Alcaraz has won three out of the five matches he has played against Dimitrov. However, the last time these two players met, it was the Bulgarian who won 6-2, 6-4 at the 2024 Miami Open.
Carlos Alcaraz's potential QF opponent- Novak Djokovic
Alcaraz is all set to have a blockbuster clash against Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinal of the BNP Paribas Open. The Serb has had a stop-start season due to injury, with Indian Wells being his fourth event of the year. He had a semifinal run at the Australian Open, where he had to retire against Alexander Zverev. On either side of that, he lost to Reilly Opelka in Brisbane and against Matteo Berrettini in Doha.
Alcaraz has won three of the eight matches he has played against Djokovic. The duo last contested against each other at the Australian Open quarterfinal this year, with the Serb winning 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.
Carlos Alcaraz's potential SF opponent- Taylor Fritz
Alcaraz will potentially face off against third-seeded Taylor Fritz in the semifinal in Indian Wells. Fritz has struggled in 2025, unable to sustain his form, which saw him reach the finals of the US Open and the ATP finals last year. He started the year off with a great campaign at the United Cup, where he won four out of his five matches.
However, on the Tour, Fritz has played three events in the year so far, and he has not reached the semifinals in any of them despite being the top seed in Dallas and Delray Beach.
Alcaraz has won both his matches against Fritz. The last time they met, the World No. 3 won 6-2, 7-5 at the 2024 Laver Cup.
Carlos Alcaraz's potential Final opponent- Alexander Zverev/ Daniil Medvedev
Top seed Alexander Zverev or fifth-seeded Daniil Medvedev might be the potential opponents for Carlos Alcaraz in the final of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open. Zverev had a great start to the season, reaching his third Major final at the Australian Open. However, since his loss to Jannik Sinner in Melbourne, the German has struggled to find form, as he has a modest 4-3 record in the next three events he has played.
Daniil Medvedev has been struggling for form since last season, and the former World No. 1's problems seem to have persisted this season as well. His best result this season came in Marseille, where he had to retire against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semifinal.
Alcaraz has played Zverev 11 times, winning five of those encounters. The last match between the two ended in a 7-6 (5), 6-4 win for the German at the 2024 ATP Finals. Against Medvedev, Alcaraz has won six of his eight matches, including the 7-5, 6-3 win at the 2024 China Open when the two last played.