Indian Wells 2025: Men's singles draw analysis, preview and prediction ft. potential Novak Djokovic-Carlos Alcaraz QF | BNP Paribas Open
The men's singles draw for the 2025 BNP Paribas Open, also known as the Indian Wells Masters, was released on Monday, March 3. We are in for two weeks of exciting tennis action, with the main draw matches commencing on March 5.
In World No. 1 Jannik Sinner's absence amid his three-month doping suspension, World No. 2 Alexander Zverev enters the Masters 1000 event as the top seed. Meanwhile, two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz will headline the bottom half of the draw, aiming to make history by joining Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic as the only male players to win three consecutive titles at the prestigious event.
2022 champion Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud, two-time runner-up Daniil Medvedev, and five-time winner Novak Djokovic round out the top six seeds at this year's edition of the Indian Wells Masters.
On that note, let's explore how the men's singles draw at the 2025 BNP Paribas Open might play out over the next two weeks.
First Quarter: Alexander Zverev chasing maiden Indian Wells Masters title
Seeded Players: (1) Alexander Zverev, (8) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (12) Holger Rune, (16) Frances Tiafoe, (18) Ugo Humbert, (19) Tomas Machac, (28) Matteo Berrettini, (29) Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Expected Quarterfinal: Alexander Zverev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Dark Horse: Tallon Griekspoor
Analysis: After recording disappointing results following his Australian Open runner-up finish, top seed Alexander Zverev will fancy his chances of advancing past the quarterfinals of the Indian Wells Masters for the first time in his career.
Following a first-round bye, the World No. 2 will commence his campaign against the winner between Tallon Griekspoor and Miomir Kecmanovic, followed by a potential third-round clash with Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
If he progresses, Zverev will likely set up an exciting encounter with home hope Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round. In the quarterfinals, the German is expected to meet Stefanos Tsitsipas, provided the Greek triumphs over the likes of Alexandre Muller, Matteo Berrettini, and Holger Rune.
Although Tsitsipas is fresh off his triumph at the Dubai Tennis Championships and holds a 10-6 lead in their head-to-head record, the German has triumphed in their two latest hard court encounters. Zverev will also be motivated to beat the Greek in order to continue his quest to attain the World No. 1 ranking for the first time.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Zverev def. Tsitsipas
Second Quarter: Daniil Medvedev will look to end title drought
Seeded Players: (4) Casper Ruud, (5) Daniil Medvedev, (10) Tommy Paul, (15) Lorenzo Musetti, (20) Arthur Fils, (23) Jiri Lehecha, (25) Alexei Popyrin, (31) Alex Michelsen
Expected Quarterfinal: Casper Ruud vs Daniil Medvedev
Dark Horse: Nishesh Basavareddy
Analysis: Although Daniil Medvedev has yet to find his best form this season, the Russian will bank on his back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Indian Wells Masters for a much-needed confidence boost as he aims to win his first title since the 2023 Italian Open.
The Russian will come up against Nishesh Basavareddy or Yibing Wu in the second round, with Alex Michelsen drawn as his likely third-round opponent. Medvedev will potentially battle it out against Tommy Paul or Jiri Lehecka for a spot in the quarterfinals.
Meanwhile, Casper Ruud will need to beat the likes of Marcos Giron, Alexei Popyrin, and Lorenzo Musetti to reach the final eight. Given his 3-0 winning record against Ruud, Medvedev will be the favorite to emerge victorious in their blockbuster clash and advance to the semifinals.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Medvedev def. Ruud
Third Quarter: Taylor Fritz could meet Ben Shelton in Indian Wells Masters QF
Seeded Players: (3) Taylor Fritz, (7) Andrey Rublev, (11) Ben Shelton, (13) Jack Draper, (17) Felix Auger-Aliassime, (22) Karen Khachanov, (30) Alejandro Tabilo, (32) Brandon Nakashima
Expected Quarterfinal: Taylor Fritz vs Ben Shelton
Dark Horse: Joao Fonseca
Analysis: Taylor Fritz, who triumphed at the 2022 Indian Wells Masters, will aim to repeat his feat at this year's event. The third seed will start his campaign against Sebastian Baez or a qualifier and could battle Alejandro Tabilo in the third round. If he progresses, Fritz will face a formidable challenge against Andrey Rublev or Felix Auger-Aliassime.
In pursuit of his maiden Masters 1000 title, Ben Shelton could meet rising star Learner Tien in an exciting second-round meeting, followed by a possible encounter with Karen Khachanov. Andrey Rublev and Brandon Nakashima loom as the 22-year-old's potential fourth-round opponents.
Having triumphed over Shelton in their sole previous meeting at the 2023 Indian Wells Masters, Fritz will likely beat his compatriot if they both reach the final eight.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Fritz def. Shelton
Fourth Quarter: Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic on course for potential QF showdown
Seeded Players: (2) Carlos Alcaraz, (6) Novak Djokovic, (9) Alex de Minaur, (14) Grigor Dimitrov, (21) Hubert Hurkacz, (24) Sebastian Korda, (26) Francisco Cerundolo, (27) Denis Shapovalov
Expected Quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic
Dark Horse: Gael Monfils
Analysis: Two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz and five-time winner Novak Djokovic headline this quarter of the draw. Both players are aiming for historic accomplishments at the Indian Wells Masters, with Alcaraz on the hunt for his third consecutive title, while the Serb chases his record sixth triumph.
Djokovic and the Spaniard will likely be each other's biggest roadblocks to a spot in the semifinals, with a potential quarterfinal clash on the cards.
After a first-round bye, the 24-time Grand Slam champion will face Nick Kyrgios in a blockbuster second-round clash if the Australian emerges victorious against his qualifier opponent. Djokovic will then likely meet Francisco Cerundolo and Alex de Minaur en route to the quarterfinals.
Meanwhile, Alcaraz will square off against Quentin Halys in his tournament opener, followed by a potentially thrilling third-round meeting with Denis Shapovalov. If the Spaniard progresses, he will meet Sebastian Korda or Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round.
While Novak Djokovic pulled off a remarkable win over Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open earlier this year, the World No. 3 has produced some of his best tennis at the Indian Wells Masters in recent years and might have the edge after his recent Rotterdam Open triumph.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Alcaraz def. Djokovic
Semifinal Predictions
Alexander Zverev def. Daniil Medvedev
Carlos Alcaraz def. Taylor Fritz
Prediction for the final
Alcaraz def. Zverev