Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev vs Carlos Alcaraz: How does the World No. 1 race look like after Miami Open results?
Jannik Sinner is suspended from tennis, but he still has a sizeable lead over Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz at the top of the ATP rankings. Zverev and Alcaraz have both been eliminated from the ongoing Miami Open.
Sinner was the defending champion at the Masters 1000 event, but his doping ban saw him being unable to compete this year, thus leading to a loss of 1000 ranking points. However, neither Alcaraz nor Zverev had impressive outings in Miami, as they both dropped points.
Alcaraz, who reached the quarterfinals of the tournament last year, suffered a shock 7-5, 4-6, 3-6 loss to David Goffin in the second round this time around, thus losing 190 points. Zverev reached the semifinals in the 2024 edition of the Masters 1000 but could only make it as far as the fourth round in 2025 before losing 6-3, 3-6, 4-6 to Arthur Fils. As a result, his points tally will drop by 300 when the next set of ATP rankings is out on Monday, March 31.
Jannik Sinner will enter the month of April with 10330 points, 2685 more than Zverev, who currently has 7645 points. The Italian also has 3610 points more than his rival, Carlos Alcaraz, whose current tally is 6720.
Sinner's ban will end on May 4, which means that he will be eligible to compete at the Italian Open. However, he will miss out on two Masters 1000 events in Monte-Carlo and Madrid, thus losing 600 points from last year. The Italian reached the semifinals of the Monte-Carlo Masters in 2024 while making it to the quarterfinals in Madrid, and his points tally will be 9730.
In Jannik Sinner's absence, how can Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev come close to the World No. 1 ranking?
Four tournaments will take place before Jannik Sinner's doping ban ends—the Monte-Carlo Masters, Barcelona Open, BMW Open, and the Madrid Open. The good news for World No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz is that he only has 200 points to defend from these tournaments, having missed Monte-Carlo and Barcelona last year, while reaching the quarterfinals in Madrid.
If the Spaniard is able to win in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, he will win 1500 points, and his points tally will go up to 8220. Alcaraz's tally will reach 9020 if he is able to clinch his third title in Madrid, and he would be 710 points behind Jannik Sinner in the ATP rankings before the Italian Open kicks in.
As for Alexander Zverev, he didn't particularly impress much in the 2024 European clay-court season before the Italian Open and will only have 200 points to defend. The German is set to compete in Monte-Carlo, Madrid, and the BMW Open in Munich, which has been upgraded to an ATP 500 event.
If Zverev is able to win all of the aforementioned tournaments, his points tally will reach 9945, which will make him the new World No. 1 before his title defense at the Italian Open.
Even a runner-up finish in Munich can take the 27-year-old to the top of the rankings if he wins in Monte-Carlo and Madrid, as that will see his points tally stand at 9775, which is still 45 points ahead of what Jannik Sinner's points tally will be on May 5.