Roland Garros 2021: Naomi Osaka's projected path to the final
Naomi Osaka will enter Roland Garros 2021 looking to reach the second week of the claycourt Slam for the first time in her career. The four-time Major champion has exited early in each of her four appearances in Paris.
Osaka is also currently riding a two-match losing streak on clay, so her expectations from the French Open would naturally be low. But the Japanese has been given a fairly easy draw this time, and she could possibly do some damage if she is in the right headspace.
On that note, let's take a look at Naomi Osaka's potential opponents at Roland Garros this year.
Naomi Osaka's 1st round opponent - Patricia Maria Tig
Romania's Patricia Maria Tig is an experienced customer on clay. The 26-year-old recorded the best Grand Slam result of her career last year, when she reached the third round of the French Open.
But while Tig is a force to be reckoned with on clay, she doesn't quite have the power to put Osaka on the move with regularity.
Naomi Osaka's likely 2nd round opponent - Ana Bogdan
Naomi Osaka could then face a qualifier or Romania's Ana Bogdan in the second round. The World No. 2 should be expected to make light work of either woman, and thus match her career-best result at Roland Garros.
Naomi Osaka's likely 3rd round opponent - Paula Badosa / Danka Kovinic
If Naomi Osaka wins her first two matches, she could face one of Paula Badosa, Lauren Davis or Danka Kovinic in the third round. Davis enjoys playing more on faster courts than clay, which means Badosa and Kovinic are likelier to make it to the Round of 32.
Kovinic has given a good account of herself during this year's clay swing, finishing as the runner-up at Charleston 1 and making the semis at Charleston 2. Badosa, meanwhile, clinched the Serbia Ladies Open trophy last week, and also has a claycourt win over Ashleigh Barty to her credit this year.
Both Badosa and Kovinic could offer Osaka some resistance for a place in Roland Garros' second week, but the Japanese is likely to come through eventually.
Naomi Osaka's likely 4th round opponent - Marketa Vondrousova / Kiki Bertens / Kaia Kanepi / Caroline Garcia
The going gets relatively tougher for Naomi Osaka in the Round of 16, as she could face one of 2019 finalist Marketa Vondrousova, 16th-seeded Kiki Bertens, the dangerous Kaia Kanepi or local hope Carolina Garcia.
It is pertinent to note that Osaka's prospective opponents in this round are either solid from the baseline or have achieved great results in Paris in the past. The Japanese would have no choice but to be dialed in from the start of the match if she hopes to reach the quarters.
Naomi Osaka's likely quarterfinal opponent - Bianca Andreescu
If Naomi Osaka is able to serve herself out of trouble regularly and keep her focus razor-sharp, she might have a chance of advancing to the quarterfinals. At that stage, the 23-year-old could face one of sixth-seeded Bianca Andreescu, former semifinalist Johanna Konta or the in-form Veronika Kudermetova.
Andreescu made a successful return to clay in Strasbourg, where she won her first two matches without any trouble. The World No. 7 was, however, forced to withdraw from the quarterfinals due to an injury scare.
In any case, Osaka would have to be wary of Andreescu's shot-making and variety - provided the Canadian makes it that far.
Naomi Osaka's likely semifinal opponent - Serena Williams / Aryna Sabalenka
For a place in the championship match, Naomi Osaka might have to cross swords with either Serena Williams or Aryna Sabalenka. But Williams has looked out of sorts lately, and is unlikely to make it that far.
Sabalenka, on the other hand, turned in possibly the best performance of her fledgling career in the final of the Madrid Open, where she beat World No. 1 Ashleigh Barty. Osaka will have her hands full if she has to defuse the big-hitting Belarusian's challenge in the last four at Roland Garros.
Naomi Osaka's likely opponent in the final - Ashleigh Barty / Iga Swiatek
If Naomi Osaka somehow manages to navigate her way through to the final, she will probably face either Ashleigh Barty or Iga Swiatek. Both Barty and Swiatek have established their claycourt pedigree over the last few years, winning the last two editions of the French Open.
The pair also play the kind of tennis that reaps rich rewards on clay, using intelligent shot selection to hit through their opponents. While Osaka doesn't seem to have the skills to beat either Barty or Swiatek on clay, reaching this stage of the tournament should be a moral victory for the Japanese.