US Open 2024 Draw: Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to the final ft. possible R4 showdown with Jack Draper, and SF with Jannik Sinner
2022 champion Carlos Alcaraz heads into the US Open as the favorite for the men’s top prize, having already secured two Grand Slam titles this year. The Spaniard will, however, face stiff competition in his quest for a fifth major, with challengers such as Jannik Sinner, Hubert Hurkacz, and Jack Draper in his half of the draw.
Alcaraz made a name for himself at this very venue in 2022 when he defeated Casper Ruud to win the title at just 19 years of age. He's been in fine form this year, already winning the French Open, Wimbledon, and Indian Wells. After setbacks in the Olympic finals and in Cincinnati last week, he will be keen to channel that adversity into a positive performance in New York.
On that note, here's a look at the Spaniard’s projected path to a second US Open final.
R1 Opponent - Qualifier
Alcaraz is set to begin his campaign against a qualifier. The qualifying rounds concluded on Thursday, August 22, with Diego Schwartzman, Mattia Bellucci, and Quentin Halys among the notable players who successfully advanced.
Possible R2 Opponent - Denis Shapovalov/Botic van de Zandschulp
Alcaraz could either face Denis Shapovalov or Botic van de Zandschulp in the second round.
Shapovalov comes to New York with a 15-19 match record, his best result this year being a quarterfinal run at the Citi Open a couple of weeks ago. Van de Zandschulp, on the other hand, has an 11-17 match record for the year and has surprisingly failed to win more than two consecutive matches. He is coming off a first-round loss to Arthur Cazaux in Winston-Salem.
Alcaraz should easily see off whoever out of the two makes it through. He leads Shapovalov 1-0 in their head-to-head, having won their only match at the French Open last year, and he is 2-0 against van de Zandschulp.
Possible R3 Opponent - Jack Draper
A blockbuster match could be on the horizon early at the US Open, with a likely third-round clash between Alcaraz and Jack Draper.
The Brit surprisingly defeated Alcaraz earlier this year at the Cinch Championships, winning in straight sets and going on to claim the title, which was the first of his career. The Spaniard, however, leads their head-to-head 2-1, coming out on top in Indian Wells and Basel.
Draper has been in great form this year and heads into New York with a 25-17 match record this year. His American hardcourt swing has been mixed, with a first-round loss in Toronto and a quarterfinal run in Cincinnati, where he secured a victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas and had a contentious win against Felix Auger-Aliassime.
With Draper's current form, the encounter promises to be thrilling, as the Brit is sure to pose a multitude of problems.
Possible R4 Opponent - Sebastian Korda
Alcaraz could face home favorite Sebastian Korda in the fourth round if they both navigate through their sides of the draw successfully.
Korda is coming off a standout American hardcourt swing, having won the Citi Open by defeating the likes of Thanasi Kokkinakis, Jordan Thompson, Frances Tiafoe, and then Flavio Cobolli in the final. This victory marked his first ATP 500 title and the second of his career. He heads into New York with a 30-18 match record for the year.
Despite the American's good form off late, Alcaraz might unfortunately be a pill too big to swallow. Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 4-1, having won both of their Grand Slam encounters. This match will be their first meeting on hard courts.
Possible QF Opponent - Hubert Hurkacz/Alex de Minaur
Alcaraz could face the big-serving Hubert Hurkacz in the quarterfinals. The Pole has been relatively inconsistent recently and has struggled to reach the later stages of tournaments, with disappointing losses in the quarterfinals of both the National Bank Open and the Cincinnati Open.
Alcaraz currently leads their head-to-head 3-0, and it's unlikely that Hurkacz will change that statistic should they meet. Additionally, Hurkacz has never advanced past the second round in New York and has a paltry 5-6 win-loss record at the venue.
Alex de Minaur is another player to watch in this section of the draw. He has been in excellent form this year, heading into New York with a 36-12 win-loss record. He has also won titles in Acapulco, defeating Casper Ruud, and in 's-Hertogenbosch, where he triumphed over Sebastian Korda.
Like Hurkacz, de Minaur has yet to defeat Alcaraz on tour. Alcaraz has won both of their previous encounters: in the final of the 2023 Cinch Championships and the semifinals of the 2022 Barcelona Open. It is unlikely either will score the upset over Alcaraz.
Possible SF Opponent - Jannik Sinner
World No. 1 and arch-rival Jannik Sinner could very likely face Alcaraz in a blockbuster semifinal if both players advance through their respective quarterfinals.
Sinner is arriving in New York after an impressive week in Cincinnati, where he claimed his fifth title of the season with a decisive victory over Frances Tiafoe in the final. He boasts a 48-5 record for the year and appears well and truly hungry for more success. With one Grand Slam title already this year, the Italian will be determined to match his Spanish counterpart, who has won two.
Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 5-4, with the pair having met twice this year. Alcaraz emerged victorious on both occasions, in Indian Wells and Paris. Alcaraz also holds a 4-2 advantage in their head-to-head on hard courts.
Possible Final Opponent - Novak Djokovic
Alcaraz could potentially face defending champion Novak Djokovic for yet another Grand Slam title. Djokovic is chasing a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam after making history earlier this year by becoming the fifth player in the Open Era to achieve a Career Golden Slam, joining Steffi Graf, Andre Agassi, Rafael Nadal, and Serena Williams.
Neither player has had the best build-ups to the New York major, with Djokovic skipping the entire hardcourt swing and Alcaraz playing just the one match in Cincinnati. Djokovic leads their head-to-head 4-3, having won their most recent encounter in the Olympic Games final. Alcaraz, however, holds a 2-1 edge in Grand Slam matches and is also 2-1 in finals, thanks to his back-to-back Wimbledon victories.
Djokovic has yet to win a Grand Slam this year and is sure to challenge Alcaraz fiercely if they meet. Alcaraz, eager to avenge his Olympic defeat, will be relentless in his pursuit of a fifth Grand Slam title.